Key Takeaways
- Goldman Sachs slashed its Tesla Q3 delivery projection to 435,000 units from 490,000, pointing to softening demand across China, US, and European markets.
- The updated third-quarter projection falls short of the Street consensus estimate of 456,000 deliveries.
- Tesla shares currently trade at $356.58, reflecting a 20% decline year-to-date, with the company valued at $1.41 trillion.
- CFO Vaibhav Taneja offloaded 2,606 shares on September 8 at $360.13 per share, representing a 9.12% trim of his holdings.
- Wall Street maintains a “Hold” rating on Tesla with an average target price of $414.68.
Tesla (TSLA) faces mounting headwinds following Goldman Sachs’ decision to lower its third-quarter delivery expectations, compounding what has already been a challenging year for the electric vehicle pioneer.
Goldman analyst Mark Delaney reduced his Q3 delivery projection to 435,000 units from a previous estimate of 490,000. Despite the downgrade, he maintained his Neutral stance on the stock with a $360 price target. Shares are currently changing hands at $356.58.
The updated forecast lands below Wall Street’s collective expectation of 456,000 deliveries, according to data compiled by Visible Alpha. Additionally, fifteen analysts have recently adjusted their earnings projections downward for the coming quarter.
Goldman cited deteriorating monthly and weekly sales figures from China, the United States, and Europe as the primary catalyst for the reduction. However, markets receiving exports from China—including Southeast Asia, South America, and Australia—continue to demonstrate resilience and should provide some counterbalance to the weakness elsewhere.
Goldman also lowered its fourth-quarter outlook to 475,000 deliveries from 515,000. That projection, however, remains above the consensus forecast of 462,000.
Tesla shares have declined 20% since the start of the year. During the past twelve months, the stock touched a low of $297.38 and reached a peak of $498.83.
Executive Stock Transaction
Tesla’s Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja disposed of 2,606 shares on September 8 at an average sale price of $360.13, generating proceeds of $938,498. The transaction was associated with tax liabilities from equity compensation vesting. His current holding stands at 25,972 shares.
Institutional shareholders control 66.2% of Tesla’s outstanding shares. Waverly Advisors reduced its Tesla holdings by 12.1% during the second quarter, divesting 7,973 shares while maintaining 58,174 shares valued at approximately $24.5 million.
Conversely, Nykredit A/S established a fresh stake worth about $262 million, while Range Advisory increased its position by 91.9%.
Recent Financial Results and Divergent Street Opinions
Tesla’s latest quarterly report revealed revenue of $28.24 billion, representing a 25.5% year-over-year increase and surpassing the $26.42 billion Street estimate. However, adjusted earnings per share of $0.33 significantly underperformed the $0.50 consensus expectation.
Wall Street remains divided on Tesla’s prospects. Stifel carries a Buy rating with a $491 price objective. Evercore elevated Tesla to Outperform in June. Wells Fargo maintains a more conservative stance with an Underweight rating and $130 target. GLJ Research holds a Sell recommendation.
The aggregated Street consensus stands at Hold, comprising 22 Buy ratings, 18 Hold ratings, and five Sell ratings. The mean price target sits at $414.68.
From a regulatory perspective, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is examining whether Tesla appropriately self-certified its steering-wheel-free Cybercab. The agency has set a September 30 deadline for Tesla’s response.
Goldman continues to identify potential demand catalysts for Q4, including the Model Y Long Range production ramp across US and European facilities and ongoing Full Self-Driving technology development. Wall Street forecasts Tesla will deliver $0.88 in earnings per share for the complete fiscal year.
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