Key Highlights
- Tesla shares have climbed approximately 30% over the last month, though they remain down 4% year-to-date
- Elon Musk is currently in China seeking regulatory approval for Full Self-Driving technology in the critical market
- FSD subscriptions reached 1.3 million by the end of Q1 2026, representing a significant increase from 850,000 the previous year
- Tesla has discontinued Model S and Model X production to transition facilities toward Optimus humanoid robot manufacturing
- Industry analysts at McKinsey anticipate widespread robotaxi deployment globally will occur around 2030
Shares of Tesla ($TSLA) are currently hovering near $448, marking an approximate 30% gain over the past month, although the stock continues to trail by roughly 4% since the start of the year.
The equity saw morning gains on Wednesday before retreating, settling at $432.08 with a 0.3% decline, as CEO Elon Musk traveled aboard Air Force One to China with a delegation of prominent American executives, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg.
This visit carries significant implications. Tesla is actively pursuing authorization to market its Full Self-Driving (FSD) advanced driver assistance system in China, a development that could substantially broaden its subscription revenue stream.
FSD currently commands a $99 monthly subscription fee in the United States. By the conclusion of Q1 2026, Tesla had accumulated 1.3 million FSD subscribers, representing growth from approximately 850,000 subscribers twelve months earlier.
Securing Chinese market access would represent a substantial win for a company increasingly positioning its future around artificial intelligence-powered offerings — including FSD, autonomous taxi services, and humanoid robotics.
Tuesday’s trading session witnessed a 2.6% decline, ending a four-session rally that had boosted the stock price by more than 14%. Much of that momentum stemmed from investor enthusiasm surrounding the potential China FSD authorization.
Tesla’s core automotive operations have encountered headwinds. The company is grappling with weakening vehicle demand, a relatively stagnant product portfolio, and intensifying global competition.
Instead of prioritizing aggressive vehicle lineup refreshes, Musk has been redirecting capital and resources toward strategic long-term initiatives.
Optimus Robot Takes Priority
Earlier in the month, Tesla ceased manufacturing of its Model S and Model X vehicles. Those production facilities are now being repurposed for assembly of the company’s Optimus humanoid robot platform.
Investors are eagerly anticipating details about Optimus version three, which may be showcased during the summer months.
Tesla has maintained tight control over information releases. During the Q1 earnings conference call, Musk explained that rivals conduct “frame-by-frame analysis” of Tesla’s public demonstrations and replicate innovations as quickly as possible.
Autonomous Taxi Market Potential
Beyond humanoid robotics, the autonomous taxi sector represents another cornerstone of Tesla’s investment thesis.
McKinsey & Co. forecasts that robotaxi services will achieve large-scale deployment internationally by approximately 2030. Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood estimates the total addressable market could range from $5 trillion to $10 trillion.
Tesla has commenced production of its Cybercab vehicle, purpose-built for autonomous taxi operations. Trial programs are currently operational across multiple metropolitan regions.
Tesla’s existing manufacturing infrastructure, which appears disadvantageous amid softening auto sales, may prove strategically valuable as autonomous taxi demand materializes.
With 1.3 million FSD subscriptions recorded at the end of Q1 2026, that figure could expand substantially should Chinese regulators approve the technology for their market.
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