Key Takeaways
- Walmart’s Q1 FY27 earnings arrive May 21, with Wall Street forecasting $0.66 EPS and approximately $174.8B in revenue
- Buy ratings dominate analyst coverage with 28 of 30 recommending the stock; targets span $132–$150
- Recent upgrades include Piper Sandler to $137, Bernstein to $145, while UBS maintains $147
- Projected U.S. comp sales growth between 3.9%–4.5%, supported by digital commerce and food categories
- Consumer sentiment dropped to 1952 lows, with elevated fuel costs presenting ongoing challenges
Shares of Walmart have climbed approximately 18% year-to-date, trading near $131 as of May 17. The company prepares to unveil quarterly results this Thursday backed by considerable analyst enthusiasm, though certain macroeconomic pressures remain on the radar.
Street sentiment leans decidedly positive. Among 30 analysts tracking the retailer, 28 maintain Buy recommendations. The consensus price objective hovers around $136.45, suggesting room for moderate appreciation from present trading levels. Piper Sandler’s Peter Keith upgraded his target from $130 to $137 while maintaining an Overweight stance. Keith observed that consumer expenditure has remained relatively stable despite climbing gas prices, though tax refund season failed to trigger significant retail momentum — suggesting households prioritized savings over purchases.
Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma increased his price objective from $134 to $145. Ma indicated that merchants catering to affluent consumers might gain from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” while cautioning that energy expenses, inflationary pressures, and diminished government assistance could constrain broader consumption patterns.
Michael Lasser from UBS retained his Buy recommendation with a $147 price target. Lasser projects U.S. comparable sales expansion near 4.5%, fueled by e-commerce gains exceeding 25%. While anticipating weakness in health and wellness categories, he still forecasts Walmart’s domestic operations will achieve profit growth toward the upper boundary of company guidance.
Financial Projections Breakdown
Wall Street consensus points to Q1 earnings per share of $0.66, representing roughly 8% year-over-year improvement. Revenue projections center around $174.8B, marking over 6% growth. These figures follow Q4 FY2025 performance, where Walmart delivered $190.7B in revenue and $0.74 EPS — surpassing analyst estimates — though net income declined approximately 19% due to a non-recurring Vizio-related impairment charge and elevated supply chain expenses.
For the current quarter, comparable store sales performance will command investor attention. Analysts anticipate U.S. same-store sales advancement in the 3.9%–4.5% corridor, propelled by grocery demand and higher-earning consumers seeking value. Food products constitute roughly two-thirds of Walmart’s domestic revenue stream, providing defensive characteristics when discretionary spending weakens.
Market participants will also scrutinize new CEO John Furner’s remarks. Having assumed leadership February 1, this marks his inaugural complete quarter at the helm. Analysts expect pragmatic discussion emphasizing market position and measured perspectives on consumption trajectories through year-end.
Digital Advertising and Subscription Revenue Momentum
Walmart’s advertising platform and membership services have emerged as increasingly significant revenue contributors. Global advertising income surged 37% in Q4, with Walmart Connect specifically advancing 41%. Walmart+ subscription revenue expanded 15.1%. These segments generate operating margins exceeding 70%, substantially outperforming conventional retail operations.
Investors seek confirmation that global advertising growth maintains a pace above 30% this quarter. Sustained strength in this area would help counterbalance any softness in discretionary merchandise sales.
Barclays reaffirmed its Buy rating at $132. Bank of America maintained Buy status with a $150 target, highlighting resilient core customer behavior and expectations that economic uncertainty will channel additional shoppers toward value-oriented retailers. Wolfe Research elevated its target from $135 to $137.
Walmart currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio near 48x, considerably above its five-year average of 36x.
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