Key Highlights
- Apple captured an unprecedented 20% of the global smartphone market in Q2 2026, while industry-wide shipments plunged 11% YoY to levels not seen since 2013.
- Unlike competitors, Apple maintained stable pricing despite escalating memory component costs affecting the entire smartphone sector.
- Morgan Stanley lifted its price target on AAPL to $360 with a Buy rating, highlighting the company’s pricing strength and artificial intelligence strategy; Monness reaffirmed Buy with a $335 target.
- Monness projects Q3 FY2026 revenue at $109.42 billion with earnings per share of $1.95, surpassing Wall Street expectations.
- Shares traded between $313.95 and $317.31, edging closer to the 52-week peak of $323.45.
Apple achieved an unprecedented 20% share of the global smartphone market during Q2 2026, per data from Counterpoint Research — a milestone reached while competitors grappled with significant headwinds.
Worldwide smartphone shipments contracted 11% on a year-over-year basis in Q2, marking the weakest second-quarter performance since 2013. The primary driver: an intensifying shortage of DRAM and NAND memory components that elevated manufacturing expenses and retail prices. Meanwhile, Apple’s shipments climbed 3% YoY throughout the same timeframe.
AAPL shares were changing hands at $313.95 during premarket trading Tuesday, representing roughly a 1% decline, yet remaining within striking distance of the 52-week high of $323.45.
The iPhone 17 series powered Apple’s strong showing, maintaining its position as the world’s best-selling smartphone family for the quarter. Apple also distinguished itself by maintaining consistent pricing — every competing major manufacturer increased device prices in reaction to the memory component shortage.
China represented the sole area of weakness. Apple’s shipments in the region decreased year over year, despite promotional campaigns coinciding with the 618 shopping event. Legacy iPhone models also experienced softer demand as component resources were redirected toward newer product lines.
Samsung regained first place in global shipment volume with 24% market share, propelled by Galaxy S26 sales and intensive promotional efforts. Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo each experienced double-digit shipment contractions, their concentration in budget segments making them particularly susceptible to rising memory costs.
Analysts Increase Price Projections
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring elevated his AAPL price target to $360, maintaining a Buy recommendation. His investment thesis emphasizes Apple’s pricing authority — he contends that consumer demand for iPhone, Mac, and iPad products demonstrates relative price inelasticity, allowing Apple to implement price increases without substantially impacting sales volume.
Woodring anticipates a substantial price adjustment on forthcoming iPhone models, which he believes could deliver significant upside to near-term and FY2027 earnings per share projections.
Monness, Crespi, Hardt similarly maintained its Buy rating with a $335 target price. The research firm anticipates Apple will meet or exceed Q3 FY2026 projections when results are released on July 30.
Quarterly Results Approaching
Monness forecasts Q3 FY2026 revenue of $109.42 billion, topping the consensus estimate of $108.58 billion. The firm anticipates EPS of $1.95, exceeding the Street projection of $1.89.
The research house expects year-over-year revenue expansion exceeding 16% for the quarter — modestly below Q2’s nearly 17% but substantially above the 10% growth recorded in Q3 FY2025.
The July 30 earnings announcement holds particular significance: it represents Tim Cook’s final results presentation as CEO before John Ternus assumes leadership on September 1.
Not all analysts share the optimistic outlook. KeyBanc downgraded AAPL to Underweight from Sector Weight, citing declining iPhone production volumes and tepid U.S. upgrade activity.
Counterpoint Senior Analyst Shilpi Jain characterized the memory shortage as the most significant obstacle facing the smartphone industry, with challenging conditions anticipated to persist throughout 2026 and potentially extending into 2027.
Apple also recently revealed a multiyear partnership with Broadcom valued at more than $30 billion for designing and manufacturing custom silicon and wireless connectivity components, with production of over 15 billion U.S.-manufactured chips planned under the arrangement.
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