Key Takeaways
- CEO John Ternus will preside over his debut iPhone launch Wednesday, with Apple’s inaugural foldable iPhone expected to carry a price tag exceeding $2,000
- Shares of AAPL finished Tuesday’s session down 1.17% at $316.22 in advance of the announcement
- Past performance reveals AAPL typically drops 0.3% during iPhone unveilings but rebounds with a 0.5% average gain the next trading day
- Bank of America reaffirmed its Buy stance with a $380 target; KeyBanc maintains an Underweight view at $250
- KeyBanc projects iPhone 18 production at approximately 80 million devices, a decline from last year’s ~91 million, citing the absence of a standard iPhone 18 variant
Wednesday’s “Surprise and Shine” presentation begins at 1 p.m. ET, marking a pivotal moment for John Ternus as he makes his CEO debut on Apple’s most watched stage.
Trading concluded Tuesday with AAPL at $316.22, reflecting a 1.17% decrease, while extended-hours activity saw a modest 0.04% uptick. Year-to-date performance stands at 16.68%, with the stock climbing 34.93% across the trailing 12 months.
Ternus assumed leadership from Tim Cook on September 1, making Wednesday’s presentation his inaugural high-profile appearance as the company’s chief executive.
The centerpiece announcement is widely anticipated to be Apple’s entry into foldable smartphone technology. According to Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman, the device will adopt a passport-style form factor reminiscent of Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold series. Pricing is projected to surpass $2,000, positioning it above Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold 8, which retails from $1,899.
Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan anticipates Pro lineup price hikes ranging from $150 to $200, attributable to elevated memory and storage expenses. Mohan notes investor sentiment will hinge on actual pricing adjustments, Siri AI integration rates, and executive commentary regarding foldable device demand.
Analyst Community Remains Divided
BofA has retained its Buy recommendation alongside a $380 price objective, suggesting approximately 19% upside potential from Tuesday’s closing figure. Conversely, KeyBanc maintains an Underweight designation with a $250 target, cautioning that widespread price elevation could trigger “sticker shock” and dampen unit sales.
Among 29 Wall Street analysts, AAPL holds a consensus Buy rating with an average target of $335, representing roughly 5.4% upside from present levels, per Benzinga data.
KeyBanc forecasts total iPhone 18 manufacturing volume near 80 million units through early fiscal 2027, down from approximately 91 million in the prior cycle. The firm anticipates elevated pricing and premium product composition will partially counterbalance reduced volume.
Wednesday’s event is not expected to feature the standard iPhone 18 model. MacRumors, referencing Economic Daily News, suggests this variant may arrive early next year alongside the iPhone 18e and the second-generation iPhone Air.
Historical Precedent Offers Insight
Nearly two decades of analysis from Bluekurtic Market Insights indicates AAPL typically experiences a 0.3% decline during iPhone launch events, with a median decrease of 0.6%. The stock has finished positively on announcement day in just one-third of the 24 launches since 2007.
The following trading session, however, paints a contrasting picture. Apple has posted an average 0.5% gain the day after product unveilings, closing higher in 15 of 24 instances.
The S&P 500 has advanced the day following an iPhone launch 79.2% of the time, while the Nasdaq 100 has done so 75% of the time.
Beyond smartphones, Apple is projected to introduce the Apple Watch Series 12 and Apple Watch Ultra 4, featuring internal enhancements and software refinements.
Apple’s iPhone division generated $54.25 billion in Q3 revenue, representing a nearly 22% year-over-year increase and comprising approximately half of the company’s $109.4 billion total net sales. CFO Kevan Parekh provided guidance for total revenue expansion of 9% to 11% in the September quarter.
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