Key Takeaways
- ASML delivered Q2 2026 performance characterized as “triple happiness” with beats across revenue, capacity expansion, and profit margins.
- Bernstein elevated its price target to €2,500, marking the highest on Wall Street, while maintaining an Outperform stance.
- Barclays increased its target from €2,000 to €2,400, keeping an Overweight recommendation.
- The company upgraded its 2026 full-year net sales forecast to €43B–€45B from a previous range of €36B–€40B.
- Wedbush highlights that the improved 2027 projections signal strength in cutting-edge logic and DRAM sectors fueled by AI infrastructure expansion.
ASML unveiled second-quarter 2026 financial results that exceeded expectations on all fronts, triggering a wave of analyst upgrades and bullish price target revisions throughout Wednesday’s trading session.
Shares climbed more than 2% Wednesday in response to the earnings announcement, although they declined 1.8% during Thursday’s premarket hours.
Bernstein’s semiconductor analyst David Dai elevated his price objective to €2,500 from €2,300 — establishing the most optimistic target currently on Wall Street — while reaffirming his Outperform recommendation. Dai characterized the quarterly performance as delivering “triple happiness.”
Dai identified three key catalysts. Initially, ASML intends to increase Low NA EUV and ArFi production capacity by 30% annually throughout 2027 and 2028. DUV capacity projections now indicate 220 units by 2028, surpassing earlier forecasts.
Additionally, Bernstein anticipates favorable pricing trends. EUV average selling prices should climb 10% during 2027, according to management guidance indicating Low NA EUV throughput improvements of 45% year-over-year against 30% capacity expansion. Another high-single-digit percentage gain is projected for 2028.
Finally, profitability metrics exceeded projections. ASML provided guidance for 56% gross margin in the latter half of 2026, substantially above the 52.6% consensus expectation.
Bernstein increased its revenue projections for 2027 and 2028 to €56 billion and €72 billion respectively. EPS forecasts were adjusted upward to €53.6 and €75.3, with the 2028 estimate positioned 37% above Street consensus.
Barclays Increases Forecast, Emphasizes Margin Strength and China Rebound
Barclays analyst Simon Coles likewise boosted his price target, advancing it to €2,400 from €2,000, while maintaining an Overweight rating.
Coles identified gross margins as “the major positive this quarter,” propelled by resurgent China DUV demand, enhanced EUV pricing dynamics, and robust upgrade-related business.
Barclays revised its 2026 revenue projections upward by 11% and 2027 estimates by 5%. The firm observed that ASML shares have surged approximately 150% since September 2025.
Company Elevates Full-Year 2026 Revenue Outlook
ASML revised its complete 2026 fiscal year net sales guidance upward to a range of €43 billion to €45 billion. This represents a significant increase from the previous €36 billion to €40 billion range and substantially exceeds the analyst consensus figure of €39.3 billion.
The enhanced 2027 outlook also drew attention from Wedbush Securities analyst Matt Bryson.
Bryson indicated that the guidance elevation, combined with potential increases in 2028 EUV system deployments, aligns “consistent with the strong demand we are seeing for both leading-edge logic and DRAM to support AI builds.”
He further noted that elevated capital expenditures in 2027 should translate to increased production capacity in late 2027 extending into early 2028, with particular emphasis on memory manufacturing. He acknowledged some uncertainty regarding the timeline for supply-demand equilibrium, given persistent spending growth.
ASML currently projects full-year 2026 total net sales between €43B–€45B, compared with its earlier €36B–€40B forecast and well above the €39.3B consensus estimate.
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