Key Takeaways
- Analyst Mig Dobre at Baird elevated Deere (DE), AGCO, CNH Industrial, and Titan Machinery from Hold to Buy ratings.
- Deere’s price objective increased to $800 from $640 at Baird, representing just the second analyst target exceeding $800 according to FactSet data.
- The rating changes stem from strengthening agricultural fundamentals that indicate a North American large-scale farm equipment rebound arriving in 2027.
- Corn futures contracts for mid-2027 delivery now exceed farmer profitability thresholds, while soybean valuations show similar improvement.
- Baird projects Deere’s earnings capacity will hit $25 per share in 2027, advancing to the mid-$30 range by 2028.
On Monday, Baird analyst Mig Dobre elevated Deere (DE) from a Hold to a Buy recommendation while simultaneously increasing his price objective to $800 from $640. This revision positions his forecast as only the second analyst price target surpassing $800 for the agricultural equipment manufacturer, based on FactSet records.
Following the announcement, Deere shares climbed 0.9% to $635.93 during premarket trading sessions.
Alongside his Deere upgrade, Dobre simultaneously elevated AGCO, CNH Industrial, and Titan Machinery from Hold to Buy designations. His revised price objectives include AGCO at $150 (previously $120), CNH at $15 (from $11), and Titan at $29 (up from $20).
During premarket activity, AGCO advanced 1.4% to $115, CNH Industrial rose 1.6% to $11.87, and Titan Machinery surged 4.1% to $18.59.
Agricultural Economics Underpin Investment Thesis
Baird’s investment rationale centers on an improving agricultural marketplace. Dobre highlighted that mid-2027 corn futures contracts currently exceed farmer cost-of-production thresholds, with soybean valuations demonstrating comparable strength.
The analyst additionally referenced declining crop quality metrics and tightening 2026/2027 stocks-to-use ratios as indicators of durable commodity price support. These factors should translate into enhanced farmer profitability per acre during 2027, which historically correlates strongly with subsequent equipment purchasing activity.
Agricultural producers have endured challenging market conditions recently. Benchmark corn valuations reached peaks exceeding $8 per bushel during 2022 but declined to below $4.50 entering 2026. Elevated commodity prices translate directly to improved farmer cash flows, which typically fuel new machinery investments.
Deere’s financial performance reflects this industry cycle. The company generated nearly $50 billion in revenue during calendar 2022. Revenue for 2026 is projected below $42 billion. Wall Street forecasts anticipate recovery toward $45 billion throughout 2027.
Pre-Season Ordering Programs Indicate Strengthening Demand
Baird also referenced early order program data as encouraging evidence. Planter and sprayer equipment categories are demonstrating mid-single-digit percentage growth compared to the previous year’s completed program.
The firm interpreted this language as suggesting final tallies could exceed current indications, providing advance insight into production and precision agriculture sector recovery.
Should commodity market fundamentals develop according to Baird’s expectations, these preliminary order figures may ultimately prove conservative relative to actual 2027 demand levels, with positive momentum extending through 2028.
Baird forecasts Deere’s earnings capability approaching $25 per share during 2027, then advancing to the mid-$30 range in 2028, compared against the current $17.99 per share baseline.
Deere delivered third-quarter earnings of $5.10 per share, surpassing consensus projections by $0.41. These results incorporated $110 million in IEEPA tariff refund proceeds, contributing approximately $0.29 per share.
Truist Securities maintains a $804 price target on Deere shares. DA Davidson elevated its target to $760 following better-than-expected agricultural equipment margin performance. JPMorgan’s current target stands at $585.
Entering Monday’s trading session, Deere stock had appreciated approximately 35% year-to-date.
Among analysts providing coverage on Deere, 58% assign Buy ratings. AGCO carries a 42% Buy rating proportion, CNH stands at 59%, while Titan Machinery now receives Buy recommendations from three of four covering analysts.
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