TLDR
- Veteran Chinese Bitcoin mining figure Jiang Zhuoer anticipates BTC will reach its bear market floor during Q4 2026
- The projected price bottom ranges from $42,000 to $44,000, derived from historical cycle analysis
- His methodology relies on Strategy’s mNAV metric, which recently declined to 0.72, comparable to May 2022 levels
- During the previous cycle, mNAV reached its floor six months prior to Bitcoin’s $15,476 price nadir
- The miner has disclosed liquidating his spot positions and establishing short trades in anticipation of the downturn
Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent figure in China’s Bitcoin mining industry, has released a cycle-based analysis positioning Bitcoin’s bear market nadir between October and December 2026. His price target for this bottom falls within the $42,000 to $44,000 corridor.
The projection hinges on Strategy’s mNAV—market net asset value—which measures the relationship between Strategy’s equity valuation and the Bitcoin assets underlying each share.
When this ratio exceeds 1.0, it indicates shareholders are accepting a premium above the underlying Bitcoin value. When it falls beneath 1.0, it signals diminished demand for the stock relative to its cryptocurrency backing.
According to Jiang’s analysis, Strategy’s mNAV recently fell to 0.72. This figure closely mirrors the 0.7 reading recorded on May 11, 2022, which coincided with the onset of the previous major market transition.
Historical Cycle Patterns Inform Current Outlook
During the last market cycle, Strategy’s mNAV reached its trough in May 2022, while Bitcoin was trading around $31,017. The cryptocurrency subsequently recorded its complete cycle bottom of $15,476 on November 21, 2022—approximately six months afterward.
Jiang’s current forecast applies this identical time lag to present market conditions. With mNAV potentially bottoming in the current period, his analytical framework indicates October 31, 2026, as a probable date for BTC’s price minimum, targeting approximately $44,016.
The mining executive acknowledged that his model demonstrates stronger reliability in timing predictions than price precision. The $42,000 to $44,000 range accounts for this inherent uncertainty.
Jiang additionally referenced the de-anchoring of STRC, noting that the present mNAV configuration could facilitate long MSTR and short BTC arbitrage strategies for certain market participants. He positioned this observation as commentary on market dynamics rather than a positive outlook for Bitcoin.
Personal Trading Position Disclosed
Through a statement on X, Jiang revealed he has liquidated his spot Bitcoin positions and initiated short trades for medium and short-term horizons. He indicated plans to resume spot accumulation once prices near his projected bottom range.
This disclosure emerged as Bitcoin encountered renewed downward pressure in June, with BTC dropping under $60,000 and catalyzing over $850 million in market-wide liquidations.
Strategy’s stock price also experienced significant declines during this market downturn as investors retreated from cryptocurrency-adjacent equities.
Jiang’s precise model date points to October 31, 2026, with an estimated BTC valuation near $44,016 at that juncture.
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