Key Takeaways
- Veteran investor Michael Terpin, nicknamed the “Godfather of Crypto,” is betting against Bitcoin in the short term despite his bullish long-term stance
- He estimates a 2-to-1 probability that Bitcoin will decline to a range of $48,000–$60,000 by October 2026
- Institutional demand from Strategy’s ongoing accumulation and ETF capital inflows should establish support around $40,000
- A fresh Bitcoin bull market is expected to emerge leading up to the 2028 US presidential election cycle
- His ultimate price forecast calls for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2033, echoing predictions from Cathie Wood, Michael Saylor, and other industry leaders
Michael Terpin, a pioneering Bitcoin supporter who earned the moniker “the Godfather of Crypto” from CNBC, believes Bitcoin faces a significant pullback before resuming its upward trajectory. He outlined his perspective during a recent appearance on the David Lin podcast.
As the founder and CEO of Transform Ventures, a blockchain-focused investment and advisory company, Terpin brings substantial credibility to his market analysis. He’s also the author of “Bitcoin Supercycle: How the Crypto Calendar Can Make You Rich.”
While maintaining his conviction in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, Terpin revealed he’s actively taking short positions on the cryptocurrency. He assigns two-to-one odds that prices will move lower in the coming months.
His bearish target zone falls between $48,000 and $60,000, with October 2026 identified as the probable bottom. According to his analysis, Bitcoin might decline to its 200-week moving average—currently hovering around $60,000—though he acknowledges the possibility of overshooting into the low $50,000s or upper $40,000s.
However, Terpin doesn’t anticipate Bitcoin breaking below the $40,000 level. He cites corporate purchasing activity from Strategy and persistent capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs as critical price support mechanisms.
The Rationale Behind Terpin’s Near-Term Bearishness
Terpin draws connections between Bitcoin’s market cycles and the American electoral calendar. He suggests that Satoshi Nakamoto intentionally programmed Bitcoin halvings on a four-year schedule to synchronize with US midterm elections.
He also highlighted coordinated selling pressure from trading firms such as Jane Street as a near-term obstacle. This activity involves a strategy commonly referred to as the “10 a.m. dump,” which aims to force liquidations and generate profits from short positions.
Concerns surrounding quantum computing also created headwinds for Bitcoin between October 2025 and February 2026, Terpin noted. Nevertheless, he minimized this threat, emphasizing that compromising every Bitcoin wallet would be impossible given the network’s decentralized architecture.
The Journey to Seven-Figure Bitcoin
Terpin’s optimistic long-term thesis for Bitcoin relies on well-established arguments: eroding confidence in fiat monetary systems, escalating sovereign debt burdens, and ongoing quantitative easing policies.
He anticipates Bitcoin will initiate a new bull cycle as the 2028 presidential race heats up, following the established four-year pattern.
His ambitious endpoint projects Bitcoin at $1 million per coin by 2033. This forecast places him alongside other prominent voices. VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel recently projected Bitcoin could achieve the $1 million milestone within approximately five years.
Other notable figures sharing comparable long-term outlooks include Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, and Strategy founder Michael Saylor.
Terpin additionally expressed his belief that artificial intelligence will dominate the next decade, highlighting the developing AI token sector as a compelling area worth monitoring alongside Bitcoin.
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