Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin surged past $65,000 for the first time since mid-August, climbing in tandem with recovering US equity markets
- VanEck research reveals 8 of 12 capitulation indicators are active, pointing toward a possible accumulation phase for Bitcoin
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States attracted approximately $300 million in net inflows on Monday, marking the strongest performance since early May
- Technical analyst Aksel Kibar identifies $76,000 as a realistic upside objective if current momentum persists
- Long-term Bitcoin holders fell beneath 60% of total circulating supply after distributing 356,000 BTC over the last month
Bitcoin reclaimed the $65,000 threshold on Tuesday, marking its first appearance at this level in more than eight days, as American equities rallied and geopolitical concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz diminished after President Trump’s recent statements.
President Trump took to Truth Social to announce that the Strait of Hormuz remained “open and operating” while confirming the removal or detonation of all water mines. The S&P 500 recovered from 7,696, marking its deepest level since early August, providing support for risk-oriented assets.
Crude oil prices maintained relative stability, with WTI declining 1% to approximately $84 per barrel. Meanwhile, US 30-year Treasury yields advanced to 5.34%, reaching their most elevated position since January 2007.
In a research communication, BNY Mellon analyst Geoff Yu observed that market participants are “demanding more compensation for inflation risk,” while increased government borrowing continues exerting upward pressure on yields.
Institutional Appetite Returns Through ETF Flows
United States spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated nearly $300 million in net inflows during Monday’s trading session. This represents the most robust daily performance since May 5, indicating a resurgence in institutional appetite.
Research from VanEck, led by Senior Investment Analyst Patrick Bush and Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel, revealed that 8 out of 12 metrics in their “Bitcoin Capitulation Check” framework are presently triggered.
The complete set of 12 indicators entered capitulation territory at various points throughout the previous three-month period. VanEck’s analysis indicates that Bitcoin is “nearing or currently in an accumulation phase.”
Technical Patterns Point to $76K Potential
Market analyst Aksel Kibar highlighted an emerging inverse head-and-shoulders formation developing near the $62,300 support zone. His analysis establishes a $76,000 price objective should the pattern validate, with a $53,000 downside risk if it breaks down.
Analyst Ted Pillows shared on X that Bitcoin appears “very close to a breakout,” suggesting that a four-hour candle closure above $65,000 might propel BTC toward $68,000.
Bitcoin continues trading approximately 48% beneath its record high of $126,300, established in October 2025. The 50-month exponential moving average currently rests at $65,827, functioning as immediate resistance.
VanEck’s historical analysis indicates that the three preceding Bitcoin bear cycles averaged 12.7 months from peak to maximum decline. Bitcoin currently sits around 11 months removed from its October pinnacle.
Long-term holders distributed approximately 356,000 BTC throughout the previous 30-day period, reducing their proportion of circulating supply below 60% for the first occasion in several months, leaving 11.84 million BTC in long-term positions.
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