Key Highlights
- ETH experienced a pullback from $2,546 down to approximately $2,438 amid increasing rate-hike expectations that dampened risk appetite
- August US Nonfarm Payrolls data showed 162K new jobs, significantly exceeding the 56K forecast and driving Fed rate-hike probability to 60%
- For the first time in 200 consecutive days, Ethereum’s MVRV ratio moved back above 1.00 on August 21
- Major whale activity included the liquidation of 167,855 ETH valued at approximately $408 million across a five-day period, creating downward pressure
- Thursday’s spot ETH ETF inflows reached $148M, contributing to August’s impressive $1.85 billion monthly total
Ethereum has retreated to the $2,400 zone following its earlier weekly peak of $2,546. The correction reflects a broader market recalibration after surprisingly robust employment figures from the United States emerged.
August’s US Nonfarm Payrolls registered 162K new positions, substantially surpassing the consensus projection of 56K and marking a significant increase from July’s modest 21K addition. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, while labor force participation edged higher to 61.6%.
This robust employment data shifted market expectations dramatically. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a 60% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate increase to the 3.75%ā4.00% band, up from just 49% before the report. Rising interest rate expectations typically create headwinds for risk-oriented assets including cryptocurrencies.
At press time, ETH was changing hands at $2,438. While the digital asset has experienced a decline, it continues trading above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, which currently range between $2,069 and $2,175.
The daily chart’s RSI reads 61, indicating positive momentum without entering overbought territory. However, the MACD indicator has dipped below zero, signaling that bullish momentum may be weakening.
Major Whale Liquidation Creates Downward Pressure
A significant Ethereum holder liquidated their complete position of 167,855 ETH ā valued at roughly $408 million ā during a span of approximately five days. According to Lookonchain tracking data, these funds were transferred to multiple exchanges including OKX, Binance, and Bybit.
At the time of this report, approximately 70,739 ETH had been deposited to various exchanges, while the remaining 97,115 ETH stayed in the original wallet. This substantial sell-off is contributing to bearish pressure on ETH’s market value.
In a related incident, a hacker associated with Coldcard initiated converting stolen Bitcoin into Ether via THORChain, moving roughly 10% of the compromised funds while approximately 90% remains unmoved.
Positive ETF Momentum and MVRV Recovery Signals
On a more optimistic note, Ethereum spot ETFs registered $148 million in fresh capital on Thursday. Total cumulative inflows have now reached $13 billion, while net assets under management stand at $16 billion.
Monthly ETF data shows $365 million flowed into these products during July, followed by a substantial $1.85 billion in August. September has already recorded $104 million in fresh inflows.
A significant on-chain milestone occurred when Ethereum’s MVRV ratio climbed back above 1.00 on August 21, breaking a 200-day streak below this threshold. This metric indicates that the average ETH holder has returned to unrealized profitability, with the realized price hovering around $2,300.
Certified Market Technician Aksel Kibar, trading under the handle @TechCharts, identified a potential bull flag formation developing precisely at resistance levels, stating: “$ETHUSD Possible bull flag right at the resistance. I like this tight consolidation. Wait for breakout confirmation.” Kibar’s assessment suggests the current consolidation phase could set the stage for an upward breakout, though he emphasizes the importance of waiting for confirmation before taking positions.
September’s ETH ETF inflows currently total $104.26 million, while bullish traders continue their efforts to establish $2,500 as a reliable support threshold.
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