Key Takeaways
- Nebius shares plummeted nearly 14% Thursday, wiping out previous session’s rally
- Concerns emerged over the company’s transition to an asset-light model and $20B–$25B capex forecast for 2026
- Company executives, including CEO, CTO, and Chief Infrastructure Officer, unloaded more than $140 million in shares during the last 90 days
- Energy partner Bloom Energy landed $1.7 billion in funding to boost Nebius’s power infrastructure
- Analyst consensus stands at Moderate Buy with a $252.86 average target price, suggesting approximately 47% potential upside
Shares of Nebius plummeted nearly 14% at Thursday’s close, reversing the bullish momentum from the day before when the AI infrastructure provider announced a new asset-light partnership strategy and secured a multi-billion dollar AI computing contract with Reflection AI extending through 2029.
The shares failed to maintain support above the $190 threshold during opening hours, setting off a textbook “sell the news” pattern as traders who rode Wednesday’s rally rushed to lock in profits.
A major factor dragging on sentiment is the company’s revised capital expenditure outlook for 2026, now projected between $20 billion and $25 billion. Crucially, revenue contributions from the infrastructure built with this investment aren’t anticipated to materialize significantly until early to mid-2027.
Market participants are demanding more concrete evidence of revenue conversion instead of an expanding pipeline of contracts.
Further intensifying the downward pressure, recent SEC disclosures showed substantial insider transactions. Top executives—the CEO, CTO, and Chief Infrastructure Officer—dumped tens of millions worth of shares, pushing aggregate insider disposals beyond $140 million across the past three months.
Such concentrated selling by company leadership typically raises red flags among institutional investors.
Bloom Energy Secures Major Funding
Coinciding with Thursday’s selloff, power infrastructure collaborator Bloom Energy revealed it secured $1.7 billion from specialty finance firm Oaktree and investment advisory company Industrial Development Funding (IDF). These funds will finance deployment of Bloom’s solid-oxide fuel cell technology to scale Nebius’s energy infrastructure.
IDF CEO Nik Nunes stated the objective is to “help Nebius meet the energy demands of the AI economy.” Oaktree is participating through a minority equity position.
Despite the significant financing announcement, market participants showed little enthusiasm.
Meta’s Cloud Ambitions Weigh on Sector
The emerging neocloud industry has faced headwinds since early July, following reports that Meta Platforms intends to commercialize surplus AI computing resources by launching its own cloud services division.
This development has consistently sparked sell-offs across Nebius and competitor CoreWeave. Every rally attempt has been countered by renewed selling pressure.
Thursday saw the Nasdaq Composite decline 0.6%, creating a challenging environment for high-valuation growth stocks like Nebius. The S&P 500 finished nearly unchanged while the Dow posted modest gains, indicating weakness was concentrated within technology sectors.
Nebius maintains strategic relationships with both Meta and Microsoft as major customers. This past March, the company announced a five-year, $27 billion AI infrastructure agreement with Meta alongside a $2 billion strategic investment from Nvidia.
Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy rating on NBIS stock, supported by five Buy recommendations and three Hold ratings issued over the last three months. The consensus price target of $252.86 represents approximately 47% upside from current trading levels.
Despite Thursday’s sharp decline, the stock continues trading at a premium compared to neocloud competitors and remains substantially elevated from its 52-week low of $49.
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