Key Takeaways
- A thermal lid problem with Nvidia’s Vera Rubin chips has caused a minor production setback, according to KeyBanc’s John Vinh
- Despite the delay, Vinh projects 1.7M–1.8M Rubin units will still ship in 2025, with volume production beginning in July
- KeyBanc upgraded its NVDA price target from $310 to $330 while maintaining its Outperform recommendation
- Shares traded near $203–$205 on Tuesday, marking a 3.4% decline for the session
- Company insiders have divested approximately 1.9 million shares valued at ~$410.6M in the last three months
Nvidia shares retreated as much as 3.4% during Tuesday’s session, starting the day at $203.69, following reports that its upcoming Vera Rubin chip lineup would face a delayed production schedule. However, the setback hasn’t shaken confidence among key Wall Street analysts.
In a research note released Monday, KeyBanc’s John Vinh identified a thermal lid manufacturing issue affecting Nvidia’s Rubin GPU production line. While the technical challenge has been addressed, it created a bottleneck that will delay high-volume shipments.
“We’re seeing a slight delay in the ramp of Rubin due to the thermal lid issues, which have been resolved, but are seeing indications that Rubin will start ramping in July,” Vinh noted in his report.
Vinh gathered his intelligence from sources within Asia’s semiconductor supply chain, a key indicator for tracking chip manufacturing schedules and production readiness.
The delay hasn’t altered Vinh’s annual shipment projections — he continues to anticipate 1.7 million to 1.8 million Rubin chips shipping this year, alongside 5.5 million to 6.0 million Blackwell architecture units.
Following his analysis, Vinh increased KeyBanc’s price objective for NVDA from $310 to $330 while reaffirming an Outperform stance. The revised target reflects a 25x multiple on the firm’s fiscal 2028 earnings projection.
Wall Street Maintains Positive Outlook
Vinh’s confidence mirrors broader sentiment across the analyst community. According to MarketBeat data covering 53 analysts, 48 rate the stock as Buy, two assign Strong Buy, and only three maintain Hold ratings. The average price target stands at $303.84.
Bank of America, Cantor Fitzgerald, and Robert W. Baird have all published or reaffirmed optimistic assessments recently, with price objectives spanning from $270 to $500.
NVDA’s 52-week trading range extends from a low of $162.02 to a high of $236.54. Through Monday’s market close, the stock had gained 9.1% year-to-date, although it has underperformed relative to the semiconductor sector overall.
Notable Insider Transaction Activity
While professional analysts express confidence, company insiders have been reducing their positions. Director Mark A. Stevens executed a sale of 885,000 shares on June 18th at an average price of $210.17, generating approximately $186 million in proceeds. Director Stephen C. Neal divested 15,500 shares on June 3rd at $215.73.
Cumulatively, corporate insiders have liquidated roughly 1.9 million shares worth about $410.6 million during the previous 90-day period. Company executives and board members now control just 3.94% of outstanding shares.
Despite insider selling, institutional investors maintain a commanding 65.27% stake in NVDA. Plimoth Trust Co. LLC increased its allocation by 3.1% during the first quarter, expanding its NVDA holdings to approximately $22.59 million — representing the fund’s second-largest equity position.
Nvidia published its most recent quarterly results on May 20th, delivering $1.87 in earnings per share, surpassing the consensus forecast of $1.76. Revenue reached $81.61 billion compared to analyst expectations of $78.42 billion — representing 85.2% year-over-year growth.
The company simultaneously announced an $80 billion stock repurchase authorization and increased its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share — a substantial jump from the previous $0.01 payment.
Based on the consensus analyst price target of $303.84, Nvidia shares carry an implied upside potential of approximately 49% from Tuesday’s trading range around $203.
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