Key Takeaways
- Ondas is scheduled to release Q1 2025 results Thursday morning before the opening bell, with Wall Street forecasting approximately $38–39M in revenue and a per-share loss of $0.05
- Following the $175M Mistral acquisition, the company’s pro forma defense backlog has surged to $457M, incorporating roughly $264M from the Mistral transaction
- Every analyst tracking ONDS—between 7 and 8 firms—has assigned a Strong Buy rating, with average price targets clustering around $20.13–$20.14, suggesting potential gains of 118–124% from current levels near $9.04
- The options market anticipates a 15.25% post-earnings price swing in either direction, signaling elevated uncertainty among traders
- Company guidance points to 2026 revenue reaching a minimum of $375M, though full profitability across all operations isn’t projected until the first quarter of 2028
Ondas Holdings faces a pivotal moment as it prepares to unveil Thursday’s quarterly results. With shares hovering around $9.04—representing a remarkable 56% gain over the last half-year—investors are eager to determine whether operational fundamentals justify the recent rally.
Wall Street’s consensus projects first-quarter revenue between $38 million and $39 million, alongside an anticipated per-share loss of $0.05. These figures mark substantial progress from the prior-year period, which delivered only $4.2 million in revenue and a $0.15 per-share deficit.
Such dramatic year-over-year growth demands attention. The expansion stems primarily from strategic acquisitions and an accelerating portfolio of defense agreements.
The standout metric this reporting period centers on contract backlog. Ondas‘ combined backlog—incorporating recently integrated Mistral and World View operations—reached approximately $457 million at quarter-end on March 31. The Mistral deal, valued at $175 million, contributed roughly $264 million of that total.
Leadership has established a 2026 revenue objective of no less than $375 million. Needham’s Austin Bohlig suggests the company could approach $500 million should operational performance remain strong.
Significant Defense Programs Underpin Growth Thesis
Beyond projections, tangible contract wins are materializing. Ondas maintains involvement in approximately $80 million worth of active demining initiatives tied to Israel’s Eastern Border Security Barrier infrastructure.
The company’s INDO Earth Moving division secured an initial $68 million order as part of a broader $140 million multi-year military engineering engagement. These extended-duration agreements provide meaningful revenue visibility for coming quarters.
Additionally, Ondas established the ONBERG Autonomous Systems partnership in Germany, specifically targeting European defense drone markets.
During the previous quarter, Ondas delivered record-breaking Q4 revenue of $30.1 million, substantially exceeding analyst projections of $15.9 million. However, profitability remained elusive, with the company reporting a $0.34 per-share loss that fell short of expectations.
Street Sentiment and Derivatives Market Signals
Coverage across the analyst community remains uniformly bullish, with every firm maintaining Strong Buy recommendations. Price objectives span from $20 to $25, averaging approximately $20.14—effectively calling for shares to more than double from present valuations.
Maxim Group’s Matthew Galinko recently elevated his target to $22 from $16, highlighting Ondas’ sufficient capital position to sustain operations until reaching breakeven, anticipated by management in 2028.
Yet the derivatives market tells a more nuanced story. Options positioning suggests traders are bracing for a 15.25% movement in either direction following the earnings announcement—an unusually wide expected range that underscores significant uncertainty regarding revenue trajectory execution.
Profitability timelines extend well into the future. While Ondas forecasts product-level profitability arriving by the third quarter of 2026, consolidated company-wide profitability won’t materialize until the first quarter of 2028.
Thursday’s financial disclosure represents the initial crucial test of whether the substantial backlog translates into recognized revenue at the pace both management and analysts are forecasting.
Ondas is scheduled to report before market hours on May 14, 2026.
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