TLDR
- Porsche AG received a buy rating from Goldman Sachs, replacing its prior neutral stance, with a price target increase from €39 to €59
- Shares traded at €47.73, placing Goldman’s revised target at approximately 23.6% above current levels
- Fiscal 2026 EPS projections were reduced 10.2% to €1.79, while fiscal 2028 estimates jumped 11.7% to €3.37
- Chinese market deliveries are projected to plunge to approximately 28,000 vehicles in fiscal 2026, down dramatically from 93,000 in fiscal 2022
- An independent DCF valuation from Simply Wall St places fair value at €41.11, indicating potential overvaluation at present levels
Goldman Sachs initiated a buy recommendation on Porsche AG (P911) this Thursday, simultaneously elevating its 12-month valuation target from €39 to €59. With shares settling at €47.73 before the announcement, the updated forecast represents potential gains of approximately 23.6%.
Porsche Automobil Holding SE, POAHF
The investment bank established a 20x forward multiple — an increase from the previous 15x — applied to an equally weighted average of fiscal 2027 and 2028 earnings projections. This pricing methodology translates to 14.5x fiscal 2029 anticipated earnings.
Goldman reduced its fiscal 2026 earnings per share outlook by 10.2% to €1.79, reflecting immediate market pressures. However, the firm boosted its fiscal 2028 EPS projection by 11.7% to €3.37, forecasting a compound annual earnings growth rate through 2030 of 30%.
The forecast revisions stem primarily from two developments: the stabilization of 911 product mix and reductions in overhead expenditures.
Regarding the 911 lineup, Goldman noted that supplier force-majeure situations during the latter half of 2024 resulted in disproportionate early shipments of entry-level and mid-range versions of the new 992.2 generation. This temporarily compressed average transaction prices.
Goldman anticipates 911 average selling price expansion of approximately 12% in fiscal 2026 and 5% in fiscal 2027, substantially exceeding Visible Alpha consensus projections of 5.9% and 2.4% respectively.
Product mix should stabilize by 2027 — mirroring the trajectory of the preceding 992 generation, which achieved equilibrium during its third to fourth year.
Cost Structure in Focus
On the expense front, Goldman highlighted that Porsche’s selling, general and administrative costs represented 12.9% of consolidated revenue in fiscal 2025. This compares unfavorably to Ferrari at 9%, BMW at 7.9%, and Mercedes-Benz at 9.2%. Efficiency opportunities exist.
The investment bank also observed that only 76.5% of Porsche’s 41,800 workforce falls under the company’s employment protection agreement extending through 2030 — a factor worth monitoring as efficiency initiatives accelerate.
Consolidated EBIT is projected at €2.22 billion in fiscal 2026, advancing to €3.11 billion in fiscal 2027 and €4.17 billion in fiscal 2028. Operating margins are anticipated to strengthen from 6.7% in fiscal 2026 to 9.7% by fiscal 2028.
China Remains a Drag
The Chinese market continues pressuring volume expectations. Goldman projects merely 28,000 deliveries in fiscal 2026 and 23,000 in fiscal 2027 — a precipitous decline from 93,000 units in fiscal 2022. China’s contribution to total deliveries is expected to contract to 11% in fiscal 2026 and 9.5% in fiscal 2027.
Consolidated group deliveries are forecast at 250,459 units in fiscal 2026 and 246,201 in fiscal 2027, representing year-over-year volume contractions of 10% and 2% respectively.
Not all analysts embrace Goldman’s bullish perspective. A discounted cash flow assessment from Simply Wall St establishes Porsche’s fundamental value at €41.11 per share — approximately 17.5% beneath the recent closing price of €48.29. The firm’s valuation assessment awarded Porsche 0 out of 6 points, citing a P/E ratio of 140.55x versus a sector average of 15.68x.
Over the past 30 trading days, P911 has advanced 13%. Year-to-date performance shows more restrained gains of 1.4%.
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