Key Takeaways
- Bernstein maintained its Outperform stance with a $239 price objective on SpaceX (SPCX) following China’s successful Long March 10B booster recovery
- Shares of SPCX declined approximately 4% Monday, hovering around $145.30, approaching its annual low
- While China’s booster landing occurred half a year sooner than analysts anticipated, the nation hasn’t yet shown capability for booster relaunch
- SpaceX has maintained a booster reuse program for Falcon 9 rockets spanning nearly ten years, executing 165 launches in the previous year
- Wall Street’s consensus price objective for SPCX stands at $246.43, representing a potential 76% gain from present trading levels
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) experienced a roughly 4% decline at Monday’s market open, settling near $145.30, approaching its yearly nadir. The selloff followed China’s weekend announcement of a successful Long March 10B rocket booster retrieval.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Bernstein’s Douglas Harned remained unfazed by the development. He maintained his Outperform recommendation with a $239 price objective for SPCX, indicating potential appreciation exceeding 70% from current valuation.
Harned had just established his bullish thesis on SPCX the previous week. His Monday commentary reinforces that conviction.
The Chinese space program successfully retrieved the Long March 10B first-stage booster on July 10 utilizing a marine landing platform during a test flight that invited immediate comparisons to SpaceX’s established Falcon 9 recovery operations. The achievement represents meaningful advancement in China’s pursuit of reusable launch technology.
While Harned recognized the accomplishment, he emphasized crucial context. The recovery occurred approximately six months before his projected timeline, yet he believes the competitive gap between China and SpaceX remains substantial.
Comparing China’s Milestone to SpaceX’s Proven Operations
The critical differentiation Harned emphasizes: China has successfully recovered a booster, but hasn’t demonstrated reflying one. These represent fundamentally different achievements.
SpaceX has been successfully recovering and relaunching Falcon 9 boosters for approximately a decade. During 2025 alone, the organization executed 165 launches. Such operational cadence stems from years of validated reusability, not merely an isolated recovery.
For China to replicate that performance, it would need to establish reliable relaunch operations and expand manufacturing capacity significantly. Harned views this as requiring multiple years at the earliest.
A technical distinction merits attention as well. Long March 10 can only recover its first stage. SpaceX’s Starship architecture aims for complete reusability ā both stages ā although this full capability remains under development.
Analyst Community Maintains Strong Confidence in SPCX
Beyond Bernstein’s position, numerous analysts have established bullish stances since SpaceX’s public debut.
Raymond James established Wall Street’s highest price objective at $800, suggesting potential upside approaching 440%. Deutsche Bank launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and $255 target. Macquarie and Clear Street both initiated with Outperform and Buy ratings respectively, posting targets of $250 and $217.
According to TipRanks data, the consensus rating stands at Strong Buy, derived from 22 Buy recommendations, four Hold ratings, and a single Sell rating. The average analyst price target across Wall Street reaches $246.43, implying a 76% appreciation from Monday’s price levels.
China’s space program continues accelerating its broader objectives. The nation has submitted International Telecommunication Union filings for deploying over 200,000 satellites into low Earth orbit and is advancing development of a lunar research facility.
Notwithstanding these ambitious plans, the average Wall Street price target for SPCX stock remains more than $100 above its current trading range.
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