Key Takeaways
- Oppenheimer launches coverage with Outperform rating and $190 price target for SpaceX
- New Street Research establishes $165 target, representing ~22% premium over $135 IPO pricing
- Wall Street forecasts indicate 2030 revenues reaching $195 billion with $65 billion operating profit
- Current valuation represents ~38x projected 2030 operating profit compared to Alphabet’s 13x multiple
- Retail investor demand reportedly exceeds $70 billion; minimum 20% retail allocation anticipated
The highly anticipated SpaceX public offering is scheduled for Friday, June 12, with shares expected to price at $135 per share—and financial analysts are already publishing their initial assessments.
Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research emerged as one of the earliest analysts to publish coverage, establishing a $165 price objective. This represents approximately 22% upside from the anticipated IPO pricing and suggests an overall equity valuation near $2.3 trillion. While Ferragu hasn’t assigned a traditional rating due to uncertainty surrounding the actual opening price, his optimistic scenario envisions shares reaching $330.
Timothy Horan from Oppenheimer took an even more bullish stance, assigning an Outperform recommendation with a $190 price objective. KGI Securities has also published a Buy rating, though complete details of their analysis remain limited.
Ferragu’s financial model anticipates 2030 revenues totaling $195 billion alongside operating profits of $65 billion. His valuation framework assigns $650 billion to Starlink operations and $575 billion to artificial intelligence initiatives.
Combining the price objectives from Ferragu and Horan yields an average valuation of roughly 38 times projected 2030 operating earnings. By comparison, Alphabet currently commands approximately 13 times on the same basis.
Understanding the Valuation Premium
According to Horan, SpaceX represents “the only vertically-integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.”
His investment thesis emphasizes the company’s unique capability to construct and maintain space-based computing infrastructure, a vision Elon Musk believes will prove more cost-effective than traditional ground-based facilities in coming years.
This narrative has resonated strongly with investors. Market intelligence indicates retail investor demand may surpass $70 billion. The offering structure anticipates allocating at least 20% to individual investors—an unusually generous portion for a transaction of this magnitude. Global institutional investors might receive under 10% of available shares.
Retail trading platforms such as Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab are preparing to provide individual investors with IPO access.
Senator Elizabeth Warren has publicly urged the SEC to postpone the listing, introducing regulatory uncertainty into an otherwise enthusiastic market environment.
Early Trading Indicators
While SpaceX hasn’t begun official trading, perpetual futures contracts on cryptocurrency exchange Hyperliquid showed pricing around $164 during early Thursday sessions—remarkably close to Ferragu’s published target.
It’s important to recognize that New Street, Oppenheimer, and KGI are not serving as underwriters for this offering. Investment banks participating in IPO underwriting face mandatory quiet periods before publishing research. Independent firms face no such constraints.
In the same research note, Oppenheimer upgraded its Tesla stock forecast, citing improved electric vehicle demand fueled by rising oil prices.
Should SpaceX shares settle near the $164 futures pricing level following Friday’s debut, analysts may find themselves revising price targets upward shortly after the opening bell.
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