Key Takeaways
- Bears have accumulated roughly $8.7 billion in unrealized gains since SpaceX went public last month
- Shares dipped beneath the $135 IPO price on Wednesday, marking the first time since the company’s debut
- Approximately 49% of the company’s available float is presently loaned out, predominantly for short selling
- Short interest stands at 31% of SPCX stock — a stark contrast to Nvidia’s mere 1%
- Despite bearish pressure, analyst consensus remains at Strong Buy with a $247.32 average target
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) were changing hands at approximately $136.28 on Thursday, hovering just above the company’s initial offering price of $135, following a momentary dip below that threshold during Wednesday’s session. The equity has shed 10% in the past five trading days and currently sits 16% beneath its post-IPO peak.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Bearish traders have aggressively increased their positions throughout the decline. Rather than booking profits after the stock reached $225.64 shortly following its public debut, short sellers continued accumulating positions during the entire downturn.
“SpaceX has proven to be a wild ride for those betting against it, and the outcome has decidedly favored the bears,” remarked Peter Hillerberg, co-founder of Ortex Technologies. “Instead of cashing out their gains, short sellers maintained their conviction and kept adding positions throughout the descent.”
Data from Ortex indicates that approximately half of SpaceX’s available shares for trading — roughly 49% of the free float — are currently borrowed. The analytics firm suggests that the overwhelming majority of these borrowed shares represent short positions.
A 31% short interest level is remarkable for any publicly traded company, particularly one that completed its market debut just weeks ago.
Understanding the Bearish Thesis
The IPO filing documents disclosed that SpaceX has yet to achieve profitability. The company reported a $4.9 billion deficit for 2025 and an additional $4.3 billion loss during the opening quarter of the current year. Given the company’s $1.78 trillion market capitalization, bearish investors are wagering that the underlying fundamentals don’t support the current valuation.
Market anxiety surrounding debt-financed artificial intelligence infrastructure investments has additionally pressured the stock price.
SpaceX is scheduled to release its maiden quarterly earnings report as a publicly traded entity in early August. This financial disclosure will provide the initial substantive examination of whether the company’s performance can validate its market value.
The magnitude of short positioning introduces significant volatility potential in either direction. Ortex calculates that each one-dollar movement in SPCX represents over $300 million in impact to short sellers. This dynamic creates risk on both sides — an unexpected surge in the stock price could spark a devastating short squeeze.
Optimistic Outlook Persists
SpaceX continues to attract bullish sentiment from Wall Street. Among 28 sell-side analysts covering the stock, SPCX maintains a consensus Strong Buy rating, comprising 23 Buy recommendations, four Hold ratings, and a single Sell opinion.
The mean price target of $247.32 suggests potential appreciation of approximately 83% from present trading levels.
Demand from both retail investors and institutional funds remains robust, while CEO Elon Musk has an established track record of confronting short sellers aggressively.
SpaceX declined to provide commentary when contacted. On Thursday afternoon, SPCX shares were trading higher by roughly 1% at $136.28.
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