Key Takeaways
- Dan Ives of Wedbush initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Buy rating and set a price target of $190, assigning a $2.5 trillion valuation to the aerospace company.
- The valuation breakdown includes approximately $1.8 trillion for AI operations and around $600 billion for Starlink services.
- Starship represents the company’s greatest potential value creator and its most significant risk factor — with just 12 completed test flights to date.
- Shares of SpaceX have declined approximately 27% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64, currently hovering near $171.
- The company trades at about 115 times its trailing twelve-month revenue, while operating losses are projected to expand this year.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are currently changing hands around $171, representing a roughly 27% decline from the company’s post-IPO peak of $225.64 reached on June 16, mere days following its June 12 public debut.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Despite this significant retreat, Wall Street interest in covering the stock continues to accelerate. Approximately 12 analysts presently track SPCX. Industry sources anticipate that figure will surge to nearly 50 within the coming weeks.
The most recent coverage initiation arrived Tuesday evening from Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who assigned a Buy rating alongside a $190 price objective.
Ives assigns a total enterprise value of $2.5 trillion to SpaceX, employing a sum-of-the-parts methodology that separately evaluates the launch operations, Starlink constellation, and artificial intelligence divisions.
His analysis attributes approximately $66 billion in value to the launch business. The Starlink satellite internet service, which now serves over 10 million subscribers and has achieved profitability, accounts for roughly $600 billion.
The artificial intelligence segment represents the largest valuation component in Ives’ model — $1.8 trillion. His projections suggest the AI division will deliver over $80 billion in annual revenue by 2028, even before orbital data center facilities become operational.
Starship: High-Stakes Gamble
Ives offers a candid assessment of where the greatest uncertainty resides. Starship, the company’s revolutionary heavy-lift vehicle, promises to slash orbital access costs by 90% relative to the Falcon 9 platform.
This dramatic cost improvement underpins virtually every bullish thesis on SpaceX — including advanced Starlink satellite deployment, space-based AI computing infrastructure, and NASA’s Artemis moon landing program. However, the vehicle has successfully completed only 12 test missions. Flight 13 is anticipated within the next several weeks.
“The vehicle is the single largest source of value in the franchise as much as its largest risk,” Ives wrote.
Among the 12 analysts currently providing coverage on SPCX, seven maintain Buy recommendations. The consensus price target across all analysts stands at approximately $240 — significantly above current trading levels.
Valuation Concerns Persist
Even following the recent downturn, SpaceX commands a market capitalization ranging from roughly $2.16 trillion to $2.3 trillion. That translates to approximately 115 times its 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion.
Revenue expanded 33% in the previous year, and growth rates could accelerate further in 2026 as new artificial intelligence contracts materialize, Starlink adoption broadens, and launch service demand increases.
However, the company recorded a net loss of approximately $4.9 billion during 2025. The AI business unit accounted for the majority of that shortfall. With substantial infrastructure investments ongoing, losses are forecast to widen in 2026.
Ives has established a reputation for bold market calls. He also provides coverage on Tesla (TSLA) with a Buy rating and maintains a Street-leading $600 price target.
SpaceX shares advanced 1.8% in Wednesday’s premarket session to $173.95, while S&P 500 and Dow futures both indicated lower opens.
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