Key Takeaways
- SpaceX (SPCX) debuted at $135 on June 12, surged to an intraday peak of $225.64 by June 16, and currently hovers near $145
- Shares have declined 35% from their all-time high while remaining above the initial offering price of $135
- The company completed a $60B all-stock acquisition of AI coding platform Cursor during its peak valuation
- Morgan Stanley launched coverage with Overweight and $300 target; Goldman Sachs initiated Buy rating at $205
- Inaugural quarterly earnings release scheduled for early August, aligned with employee lock-up period conclusion
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) launched its initial public offering at $135 per share on June 12, generating approximately $75 billion in what became the largest IPO in history. Trading commenced at $150 on day one, finishing at $160.95. Vanda Research data showed retail investors poured a record $118 million into the stock during its debut session.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The momentum continued building through the following week. June 16 marked the climax when shares touched an intraday peak of $225.64, temporarily elevating SpaceX’s market capitalization above both Amazon and Microsoft. That identical day witnessed SpaceX’s announcement of acquiring Anysphereāthe developer behind AI coding tool Cursorāfor $60 billion in an all-stock transaction.
The acquisition’s timing sparked considerable discussion among market observers. Leveraging its elevated stock price at the rally’s apex, SpaceX essentially secured Cursor at a significantly reduced real expense. Samuel Kerr from Mergermarket noted, “It showed a level of market sophistication that almost no other issuer has.”
CEO Elon Musk amplified expectations on June 14 by projecting SpaceX could achieve $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. This forecast stands in stark contrast to the company’s 2025 performance, which recorded $18.67 billion in revenue alongside a net loss of $4.94 billion.
Momentum Reversal
The stock’s upward trajectory reversed course in late June. June 22 brought news of SpaceX launching a bond offering targeting at least $20 billion to finance AI and computing infrastructure expansion. Paradoxically, despite this development, shares plummeted over 16% that day, settling at $154.60.
Inclusion in two major indicesāFTSE Russell in late June and the Nasdaq-100 on July 7āgenerated institutional interest. Approximately 200 ETFs had established positions by June’s conclusion. However, these additions proved insufficient to halt the downward momentum.
Starlink’s price reduction announcement in the Memphis region triggered an 8% single-session decline. This highlighted what several analysts characterize as friction between SpaceX’s AI narrative and its actual revenue composition, which predominantly derives from launch services and satellite operations.
By July 10, SPCX traded at $145.30ārepresenting a 35% decline from its zenith and approximately 18% below its first-day closing price.
Looking Ahead
The IPO quiet period concluded July 7, unleashing a wave of analyst coverage initiations. Morgan Stanley established coverage with an Overweight rating and $300 price objective. Goldman Sachs opened with a Buy recommendation and $205 target.
Skepticism exists within the analyst community. Seeking Alpha’s Bohdan Kucheriavyi labeled the $2 trillion valuation “unsustainable,” citing projected revenue below $40 billion this year and imminent insider selling following lock-up expiration.
The lock-up period’s conclusion is projected to align with SpaceX’s maiden public earnings announcement, anticipated in early August. Employees compensated with equity will gain selling authority, potentially introducing additional selling pressure.
CFRA analyst Keith Snyder forecasts further decline to approximately $115, grounded in the company’s present financial metrics. Such a price point would establish SpaceX’s valuation near $1.5 trillion.
Investors who participated at the IPO price maintain positive returns. Those who entered during the initial week’s surge currently face losses.
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