Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares declined over 3% during premarket hours Monday, continuing a multi-day retreat following the initial post-listing surge.
- Following its June 12 debut at $135, the stock experienced significant gains before dropping approximately 9% across the past two complete trading sessions.
- Despite recent losses, SPCX remained 37% above its offering price through Thursday’s market close.
- KeyBanc launched coverage with Sector Weight, expressing concern over premium multiples including 29x price-to-sales and 71x EV/EBITDA.
- Analyst sentiment shows six Buy recommendations against a single Sell rating from CFRA.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) are experiencing a decline exceeding 3% during Monday’s premarket session, hovering near $178 following consecutive drops of 5% and 3.6% on Wednesday and Thursday of last week.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The equity reached $185 by Thursday’s closing bell — maintaining a 37% premium over its $135 initial public offering price — though the post-listing enthusiasm appears to be dissipating. Those who purchased SPCX on the secondary market following the June 12 debut have watched the majority of their profits vanish.
Space Exploration Technologies completed one of the most anticipated public market entries in recent years. Its market capitalization momentarily exceeded both Amazon and Microsoft during the immediate aftermath of listing, though it has since retreated beneath both tech giants.
The aerospace firm reported a $4.9 billion net deficit for 2025 and recorded a $4.28 billion loss during the first quarter of 2026. Optimistic shareholders are wagering on Elon Musk’s track record of generating sustained expansion despite current red ink.
Musk personally controls 42% of total outstanding equity, subject to a lockup arrangement extending through June 2027. With approximately 5% of the roughly 13 billion shares included in the initial public float, available shares remain limited.
KeyBanc Raises Red Flags Over Premium Pricing
KeyBanc launched its research coverage Monday with a Sector Weight designation — effectively a neutral stance. The research team characterized SpaceX as “the dominant leader in space launch and space-adjacent verticals” while suggesting the risk/reward profile appears balanced given present valuations.
Trading at approximately 29x price-to-sales and 71x EV/EBITDA based on 2027 projections, KeyBanc noted the stock commands a substantial premium relative to comparable companies across aerospace, artificial intelligence, and telecommunications sectors.
The investment bank identified Starship advancement as the critical determining factor. The next-generation launch vehicle represents the cornerstone for deploying Starlink V3 satellite constellations, reducing orbital delivery expenses, and ultimately enabling space-based computing facilities. The thirteenth Starship test flight is slated for June 29.
KeyBanc indicated it employs “a conservative approach” regarding development schedules, characterizing the upcoming 12–24 month period as a “prove it phase.”
Revenue Stream Composition
SpaceX operates through three primary divisions. The Connectivity segment — housing Starlink operations — accounted for 61% of 2025 revenues, producing approximately $11.4 billion with a 63% adjusted EBITDA margin. This unit currently serves as the primary profit generator.
The artificial intelligence division, encompassing Grok and xAI infrastructure following the February 2026 combination, continues operating at a loss. However, it has secured substantial contracts: an arrangement with Anthropic valued at roughly $1.25 billion monthly, plus a separate commitment from Google at $920 million per month.
KeyBanc forecasts the AI segment could generate $50.6 billion in revenue by 2027. The challenge? Grok presently captures merely 3.1% U.S. enterprise adoption, contrasting with 41% for Anthropic and 39.5% for OpenAI.
Six research firms presently maintain Buy ratings on SPCX. CFRA stands alone with a Sell recommendation. The thirteenth Starship test flight, scheduled for June 29, will draw significant attention as a near-term performance indicator.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
