Key Takeaways
- Second-quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion for SpaceX, marking a 92% year-over-year increase and surpassing analyst expectations of $6.8 billion
- EBITDA totaled $3.5 billion, significantly exceeding the $2.1 billion Wall Street consensus
- Shares gained 7.8% over the trading week, poised to break a consecutive four-week decline
- Argus Securities raised its rating to Buy, establishing a $160 price objective
- Individual investors face approximately $4.5 billion in aggregate losses from IPO-related purchases
Shares of SpaceX rallied over 6% during Friday’s session to approximately $116.82, positioning the equity to halt a punishing four-week downturn that had erased 33% of shareholder value.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The upward movement comes after the company delivered impressive second-quarter financial results on Tuesday after market close. The aerospace manufacturer reported $7.8 billion in quarterly revenue, representing a 92% annual increase that comfortably exceeded Wall Street’s $6.8 billion projection. Adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion, crushing analyst consensus estimates of approximately $2.1 billion.
Shares debuted at $135 during the initial public offering and have experienced significant volatility thereafter, declining as much as 50% from the $225.64 all-time high. The current price represents approximately a 15% discount to the IPO level.
Individual Investors Absorbing Heavy Losses
Approximately 20% of SpaceX’s historic IPO allocation went to individual investors. Data from the offering shows continued retail accumulation in subsequent weeks. According to JPMorgan analysis, retail buyers poured at least $3.6 billion into the stock during the eight-week period following the public debut.
Based on an estimated weighted average cost basis near $150 per share, these retail stockholders are currently facing unrealized losses totaling approximately $4.5 billion. Institutional investors, meanwhile, managed to exit positions at elevated prices and largely sidestepped the steepest declines.
Wall Street Sentiment Improving
On Thursday, Argus Research upgraded SPCX from Hold to Buy, assigning a $160 price objective. The firm’s valuation applies a 20x revenue multiple to its 2027 forecast of $110 billion in annual sales. Argus highlighted the company’s efficient capital deployment, particularly in AI-related infrastructure, as a significant catalyst.
Raymond James maintained its Strong Buy recommendation with an ambitious $800 price target. Bernstein elevated its target to $248, reflecting increased revenue projections. Cantor Fitzgerald continues with an Overweight stance at $246. UBS reaffirmed its Buy rating at $210, while Mizuho maintained Outperform with a $200 target.
Analyst projections for 2027 revenue have climbed to approximately $102 billion, up substantially from $72 billion estimated at the end of July, according to FactSet data.
A lingering concern for investors remains the upcoming lockup period expirations. Mizuho analysts highlighted that approximately 911.5 million insider-held shares will soon become available for trading. Additional lockup releases are anticipated throughout the coming year, potentially creating sustained selling pressure.
Management guidance pointed to a year-end 2026 revenue run rate approaching $100 billion, substantially higher than previous projections. The stock posted a 7.8% weekly gain heading into Friday’s closing bell.
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