Key Takeaways
- SPCX shares declined to $136.78 on Monday, hovering just above the $135 IPO level after reaching $225.64 in mid-June
- China successfully recovered a rocket booster on July 10, sparking worries about competitive threats in reusable space technology
- Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest acquired $21.3 million of SPCX shares on Monday through three funds, adding to a $52M buy from the prior week
- An upcoming lockup expiration — freeing 20% of shares post-mid-August earnings — is fueling downward pressure
- The company commands a valuation near 50x projected 2026 revenue and isn’t forecast to turn a profit this year
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) have plummeted almost 40% since hitting $225.64 on June 16, settling at $139.14 on Monday — a steep decline that’s drawing scrutiny despite widespread analyst optimism surrounding the space company.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The stock debuted at $135 on June 11, rallied to $150 within 24 hours, and climbed as high as $225.64 before entering a sharp reversal. Monday’s intraday low of $136.78 brought shares perilously close to breaking beneath the initial public offering price.
In early Tuesday trading, SPCX edged lower by another 0.4%, reaching $138.61.
Yet analyst sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive — 80% maintain Buy ratings on the stock, significantly outpacing the S&P 500’s typical 55%–60% Buy rating average. Consensus price targets hover around $240, implying a market capitalization near $3.2 trillion.
Evercore ISI initiated coverage Tuesday with a Buy recommendation and $230 target price. Markets barely reacted.
Chinese Reusable Rocket Breakthrough
On July 10, China achieved a significant milestone when a Long March booster was successfully captured by a ship equipped with specialized movable cables — demonstrating advances in reusable rocket technology. SpaceX has maintained a commanding lead in this critical area, which forms a cornerstone of the investment thesis.
This Chinese accomplishment suggests the technological advantage may be narrowing, even though SpaceX continues to maintain superiority in both operational scale and technical sophistication.
Impending Lockup and Valuation Concerns
Technical headwinds are compounding the selloff. Following the company’s inaugural quarterly earnings announcement — anticipated in mid-August — 20% of total shares outstanding will unlock for sale. This substantial influx of available shares has prompted some holders to exit positions preemptively rather than risk post-lockup volatility.
Valuation metrics present another challenge. With a current market cap around $1.8 trillion, SpaceX isn’t expected to achieve profitability by 2026. The stock commands approximately 50 times forecasted 2026 sales — an aggressive premium even for a high-growth enterprise.
ARK Invest Accumulates Shares
While many investors retreat, others see opportunity. On Monday, ARK Invest acquired 130,241 shares of SPCX stock — valued at approximately $21.3 million — distributed among ARKK, ARKQ, and ARKW funds. This represents Wood’s second major purchase, following a $52 million acquisition the previous week.
The accumulation has failed to stem the decline. Technical analysis reveals continued bearish momentum, with the MACD indicator flipping negative. Market technicians identify $145 as a new resistance threshold after serving previously as support. A daily close beneath $135 would breach the IPO price — a psychologically significant level that could trigger additional selling.
As of Tuesday morning, SpaceX traded at $138.61.
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