Key Highlights
- XRP hovers near $1.10, continuing its downward trend amid diminishing trading activity
- Network participation has declined sharply, with active addresses falling to approximately 20,000āthe weakest reading in almost 12 months
- Chaikin Money Flow indicator registers -0.13, indicating ongoing capital outflows from the asset
- Large holders acquired 70 million XRP tokens, yet price action remains unable to surpass the $1.20 threshold
- A decisive 4-hour candle closure above $1.29 is required to establish a bullish short-term trend
XRP continues to face selling pressure as it trades in the $1.10 range, with buyers unable to gain meaningful momentum. The digital asset has remained trapped within a prolonged downward-sloping channel, and multiple indicators suggest that bearish conditions may persist in the near term.
Blockchain analytics from Glassnode reveal that active addresses on the XRP Ledger have contracted to roughly 20,000āmarking the weakest level observed in close to twelve months. This indicator measures the number of unique participants conducting transactions on the network. A steep decline typically signals diminished user engagement and reduced network activity.
The contraction in active addresses coincides with weakening trading volumes across exchanges. These combined signals reflect waning market participation, creating an environment where sustained price rallies become increasingly difficult without an influx of new capital and renewed investor interest.
Derivatives Market Analysis Reveals Neutral Positioning
Market analyst PelinayPA highlighted that XRP’s funding rates in the derivatives market are hovering near neutral territory. Liquidation data shows roughly equal amounts of long and short positions being closed, indicating neither side holds a decisive advantage in the current market structure.
This equilibrium also implies that the conditions for a substantial short or long squeeze remain absent. Significant squeezes generally occur when positioning becomes extremely one-sided, forcing rapid unwinding. The current landscape does not exhibit such characteristics.
According to CoinGlass metrics, approximately $102.2 million in aggregate short liquidation leverage is concentrated up to the $1.202 price level. Conversely, long position leverage totaling $61.17 million extends down to $1.02. This configuration suggests price action may gravitate toward the upper liquidity cluster before establishing a clearer directional bias.
Major XRP holders accumulated approximately 70 million tokens near July 16, as reported by AMBCrypto. Exchange data from Binance shows top-tier traders maintaining predominantly long positions, reflected in a long/short ratio of 3.44. Nevertheless, this accumulation has not translated into a breakout beyond the $1.20 supply barrier.
Critical Technical Levels for Traders
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator currently reads -0.13, remaining in negative territory. This confirms that distribution continues to outpace accumulation, with more capital exiting positions than entering.
Technical analyst Ali Charts identified $1.13 as a pivotal level for near-term price action. A convincing breach above this threshold could validate bullish momentum and potentially trigger additional upward movement.
Examining the 4-hour timeframe, XRP has successfully broken free from a descending wedge pattern. Despite this technical development, the $1.18ā$1.23 resistance band represents a formidable barrier that could stall bullish attempts. For the short-term trend to turn definitively positive, XRP requires a 4-hour closing price above $1.29.
Should buyers prove unable to defend the $1 psychological support, attention would shift to deeper support structures. Conversely, a successful breakout above current resistance could propel prices toward the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level situated at $1.64.
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