Key Takeaways
- Bernstein elevated ASML’s price objective to €2,300 from €1,700 while maintaining its “outperform” designation
- The revision reflects anticipated AI-powered expansion in cutting-edge logic and DRAM semiconductor production infrastructure
- Analysts project ASML’s EUV division will expand at a 30% yearly compound rate, achieving €42.7 billion in 2030
- Total company revenue is anticipated to touch €80 billion by decade’s end, exceeding current market expectations by 24%
- The firm simultaneously increased targets for TSMC, Intel, Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix
Bernstein has significantly increased its valuation target for ASML Holding to €2,300, marking a substantial jump from the previous €1,700 objective, while reaffirming its “outperform” stance on the semiconductor equipment manufacturer. This represents a remarkable 35% elevation in the target price.
The revision follows Bernstein’s decision to substantially increase its revenue projections for ASML, citing what analysts characterized as “extraordinary AI-powered growth” across both advanced logic manufacturing and DRAM production capabilities.
ASML stock has experienced remarkable appreciation, more than doubling in value throughout the previous twelve months. Bernstein’s David Dai has identified the company as his premier selection within European semiconductor equities.
The investment firm increased its valuation multiple to 40 times forward earnings from the previous 35 times, characterizing this adjustment as one standard deviation beyond historical average multiples.
Analysts elevated their 2027 shipment projection for extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment, including advanced High-NA systems, to 91 units from 86. The 2028 forecast similarly climbed to 113 units from 87.
Substantial Increase in EUV Revenue Projections
Bernstein’s updated model anticipates ASML’s EUV segment will expand at a 30% compound annual growth rate, culminating in €42.7 billion by 2030. This forecast exceeds what analysts described as Wall Street’s consensus estimate by more than 30%.
Deep ultraviolet revenue expectations also received upward adjustments, with Bernstein now projecting €20 billion by 2030, compared to €13 billion in 2026.
In aggregate, Bernstein anticipates ASML will generate €80 billion in revenue by 2030 — representing a 20% compound annual growth trajectory and surpassing current consensus forecasts of €64 billion by 24%.
Regarding profitability, Bernstein forecasts 2028 earnings per share of €67, which exceeds consensus by 35%, and 2030 EPS of €97, reflecting a 31% compound annual growth pattern.
The investment thesis is straightforward: while the stock has doubled, earnings growth has kept pace. The appreciation stems from fundamental business expansion rather than multiple expansion.
Timeline for High-NA Technology Deployment
Bernstein outlined its anticipated schedule for High-NA EUV implementation among major chipmakers. The firm expects memory manufacturers to lead adoption, considering DRAM dies are more compact and necessitate only single mask usage.
SK Hynix and Samsung are projected to integrate High-NA into DRAM manufacturing in 2027. Intel is anticipated to follow for logic applications in 2028, Samsung for logic in 2029, and TSMC in 2030.
Bernstein emphasized that TSMC’s delayed adoption schedule doesn’t indicate reduced attractiveness of the technology for the world’s dominant foundry. Analysts attributed the extended timeline to TSMC’s “careful and conservative approach” toward implementing novel manufacturing equipment.
Lithography intensity — representing lithography’s proportion of total manufacturing expenses — is projected to increase from 24% in 2025 to 26% in 2028, primarily driven by DRAM production demands.
Bernstein concurrently raised valuation targets throughout the semiconductor sector: TSMC to $430 from $351, Intel to $100 from $65, Micron to $1,300 from $510, Samsung to 440,000 won from 225,000 won, and SK Hynix to 3,300,000 won from 1,150,000 won.
Potential challenges identified by Bernstein include margin pressure from EUV commercialization expenses, inventory accumulation in China, weakness in the broader wafer fabrication equipment market, and additional export restrictions constraining sales to Chinese clients.
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