Key Takeaways
- BTC surged past $61,000 following June nonfarm payroll data showing only 57,000 new jobs versus 115,000 expected
- Unemployment declined to 4.2%, creating mixed signals for Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions
- Market expectations for a Fed rate increase in 2025 dropped to 50% from 54% previously
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw $221.7 million in net positive flows on July 2, breaking a 10-session withdrawal streak
- Bitcoin is poised for approximately 3% weekly gains after recovering from a 21-month bottom beneath $58,000
Bitcoin pushed beyond the $61,000 threshold on Friday following disappointing U.S. employment statistics that eased expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate increases. This movement positions BTC for roughly 3% gains across the week.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, June saw a mere 57,000 job additions to the economy. This figure significantly underperformed the anticipated 115,000. Additionally, May’s employment numbers underwent a downward revision of 43,000 positions.
The unemployment metric registered at 4.2%, marginally below the projected 4.3%. Despite appearing favorable on the surface, this data point indicates ongoing labor market adjustments.
Bitcoin was changing hands near $61,632 during early Friday trading hours, representing approximately 1.9% daily appreciation. The digital asset had touched levels below $58,000 earlier this week â marking its weakest position in 21 months.
Market observer Ted Pillows characterized the advance as a temporary rebound. In a post on X, he stated: “$BTC is now above the $60,000 level. This is just a relief rally, which often happens after a 30% crash. Bitcoin’s key levels are $62,700 and $65,000, which must be reclaimed for another lower high before a new cycle low.” His assessment captures the prevailing wariness among market participants monitoring BTC’s ability to sustain current levels.
Bitcoin experienced over 30% depreciation during the initial six months of 2026, representing its most challenging half-year performance in recent memory. Insufficient institutional appetite was identified as a primary contributing factor.
Bitcoin ETF Demand Resurfaces Following Extended Withdrawal Period
The cryptocurrency market received encouragement from renewed ETF participation. According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net positive flows totaling $221.7 million on July 2. This development terminated a 10-session sequence of net redemptions.
These sustained withdrawals had exerted downward pressure on valuations throughout June. The turnaround suggests renewed participation from institutional capital allocators.
Federal Reserve Rate Increase Probabilities Decline
Expectations surrounding Fed rate policy have adjusted following the employment release. Polymarket metrics indicate a 50% probability of a rate increase this year, down from 54% in the prior session.
CME FedWatch indicators place the likelihood of unchanged rates at the July FOMC gathering at 82.4%, up from approximately 72% the previous day.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, addressing attendees at Thursday’s ECB Forum, noted diminishing inflation concerns. He refrained from providing detailed guidance on the trajectory of monetary policy.
The majority of Fed policymakers had projected at least one rate elevation this year following the June FOMC proceedings. Market observers now anticipate a pause in July, with any prospective increase delayed until December at the earliest.
The CME FedWatch instrument displayed an 82.4% probability of rates remaining constant at the upcoming policy meeting.
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