Key Takeaways
- Spot gold jumped 1.4% on Friday, securing its first weekly advance in five weeks
- Disappointing U.S. employment figures (57,000 jobs in June) diminished Federal Reserve tightening prospects
- Probability of a September rate increase fell to 53.5% from 65% following the employment report
- Other precious metals including silver, platinum, and palladium posted significant gains
- Despite Friday’s rally, gold remains approximately 22% below its January record of $5,300
Precious metals experienced a strong rally on Friday, with gold positioning itself for its first weekly advance in over a month. Spot gold reached approximately $4,182 per ounce, marking a 1.4% daily increase and a weekly gain of around 2.3%.
The upward momentum followed Thursday’s release of U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which revealed the economy created merely 57,000 jobs during June. This figure significantly underperformed the consensus estimate of 115,000 and fell short of May’s downwardly adjusted figure of 129,000.
The disappointing employment report reduced concerns about continued Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Robust labor market conditions represent a critical factor the Fed evaluates when considering policy adjustments.
Prior to the employment data release, financial markets had priced in approximately 65% odds for a September rate increase. Following the report, those expectations declined to 53.5%, based on CME’s FedWatch tool calculations.
Factors That Have Pressured Gold Markets
Gold has experienced a challenging year. The metal recorded its steepest quarterly decline in 13 years during the April-June period, dropping approximately 13% during those three months.
A strengthening U.S. dollar, elevated inflation concerns, and hawkish Federal Reserve messaging have all contributed downward pressure on valuations. The escalation of U.S.-Iran military conflict in February additionally disrupted markets and raised questions about gold’s traditional safe-haven appeal.
Gold currently trades roughly 22% beneath its all-time peak exceeding $5,300 achieved in January 2026.
The U.S. Dollar Index retreated from near 13-month peaks following Thursday’s employment data, providing support for gold and related metals.
Broader Precious Metals Market Advances
Silver demonstrated particularly robust performance. Spot silver surged approximately 2.9% to reach $62.77 per ounce, positioning the metal for a weekly advance of roughly 6.7%.
Spot platinum climbed 2.8% to $1,660.10 per ounce. Palladium increased about 1% to trade at $1,280.09.
Both gold and silver delivered exceptional returns during 2025, appreciating 66% and 135% respectively. Year-to-date, gold has declined 3% while silver has fallen 12%.
OCBC analysts characterized their outlook on gold as “cautiously constructive” following the payrolls release.
They emphasized that weaker employment figures help diminish the likelihood of additional aggressive Federal Reserve interventions. Nevertheless, they highlighted that with unemployment maintaining stability and inflation risks persisting, a measured approach remains warranted.
OCBC indicated that a sustainable gold recovery would necessitate declining real yields, stabilizing investor appetite, and a more accommodative Federal Reserve stance.
The financial institution had reduced its gold and silver price projections earlier in the week, acknowledging ongoing pressure from U.S. interest rate expectations and elevated yields.
Market activity remained subdued on Friday ahead of the upcoming U.S. market holiday.
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