Intel (INTC) Stock Could Double: HSBC Sets $200 Target on Foundry Momentum

Frank Lee from HSBC raised Intel’s price target from $100 to $200 while reaffirming his Buy recommendation
The analyst highlights Intel’s foundry division gaining momentum, with design commitments anticipated to kick off in the second half of 2026
Major partnerships with Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon are expanding according to the report
HSBC increased its server CPU shipment growth projections to 25% for 2026 and 30% for 2027
Despite the bullish call, Wall Street’s consensus rating stays at Hold with an average target of approximately $101, suggesting potential downside

Shares of Intel (INTC) received a significant vote of confidence Thursday following HSBC analyst Frank Lee’s decision to double his price objective for the semiconductor company to $200 from his previous $100 target, maintaining his Buy stance. INTC began Friday’s session at $120.35.

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Lee, recognized as a leading analyst on TipRanks, delivered a straightforward message: the foundry narrative at Intel has become “too good to ignore.”

This target increase represents a notable evolution in HSBC’s perspective on the foundry operations. Previously in April, the investment bank excluded the foundry unit from its valuation model due to concerns about securing external clients. That conservative stance has now reversed.

Lee currently reports that customer partnerships are accelerating, with “design commitments” projected to commence during the latter half of 2026. This marks a significant adjustment in the firm’s outlook.

The analyst also highlighted Intel’s deepening collaborations with technology industry leaders — including Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon. Multiple initiatives with these companies are anticipated to advance in 2H26.

Intel’s EMIB packaging platform received favorable commentary as well. Lee indicated it could capture additional market share as semiconductor manufacturers seek capacity alternatives to competing foundries experiencing constraints.

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Server CPU Outlook Receives Positive Revision

HSBC’s optimism extended beyond foundry operations. Lee identified server processors as the “key driver” for Intel’s earnings expansion moving forward.

The bank upgraded its 2026 server CPU shipment growth projection to 25% from 20%. The 2027 forecast jumped to 30%, compared to the previous 20% estimate.

Robust AI server demand is viewed as the primary catalyst fueling this anticipated growth trajectory through the next 24 months.

Intel’s latest quarterly results demonstrated positive momentum. The chipmaker delivered Q1 EPS of $0.29, significantly exceeding the consensus projection of $0.01. Revenue reached $13.58 billion, surpassing analyst forecasts of $12.32 billion — representing a 7.4% year-over-year increase.

Hedge Funds and Institutions Increase Holdings

Among institutional shareholders, Turtle Creek Wealth Advisors expanded its Intel position by 17.3% during Q1, increasing its total ownership to 38,906 shares valued at approximately $1.72 million.

Additional firms have followed suit. iA Global Asset Management increased its stake by 17% in Q4. Van ECK Associates expanded its holdings by 18.3% in Q3, now controlling more than 55 million shares.

Institutional investors and hedge funds together control 64.53% of Intel’s outstanding stock.

However, insider activity shows mixed signals. EVP April Miller divested 40,256 shares in early May at an average price of $99.53, trimming her holdings by 27.7%.

While HSBC presents a bullish thesis, the broader analyst community maintains a more reserved posture. The consensus rating across Wall Street stands at Hold, derived from 11 Buy ratings, 25 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings issued over the past three months. The average analyst price target settles at $101.09 — suggesting approximately 16% downside from current price levels.

Intel’s 52-week trading range spans from $18.97 to $142.35, with shares currently positioned substantially above the 200-day moving average of $70.62.

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