Key Points
- NIO shares plunged approximately 6% in overnight trading Tuesday following a 2.5% decline to $4.26 on Monday.
- The Chinese EV maker posted 35,836 August deliveries, marking a 14.5% annual increase but a sequential monthly decline.
- The Onvo sub-brand experienced a sharp 46.4% year-over-year decrease and a 13.2% month-over-month drop.
- Analysts anticipate Q2 revenue reaching $4.95 billion with an adjusted per-share loss of $0.02.
- Goldman Sachs recently elevated NIO to “buy” status with a $7 target, while consensus remains at “hold” with a $6.57 average price target.
NIO shares closed Monday at $4.26, representing a 2.5% decline, before experiencing an additional 6% drop in overnight trading ahead of Tuesday’s second-quarter earnings announcement. The Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer endured a challenging August, with shares retreating 13% throughout the monthāmarking its steepest monthly decline since November and extending a losing streak to four consecutive months.
The pre-market selloff reflected investor anxiety surrounding consecutive monthly delivery decreases, intensifying concerns as the quarterly earnings release approached.
The company reported August vehicle deliveries totaling 35,836 units, representing a 14.5% year-over-year improvement but sliding 0.3% compared to July figures. This decline followed July’s more significant 11.5% sequential decrease from June’s 40,597 deliveries. While NIO has maintained deliveries above 35,000 vehicles for four consecutive months, the sustained sequential deterioration has captured market attention.
The flagship NIO brand provided a notable exception. It achieved 21,174 vehicle deliveries in August, surging 101.2% annually and advancing 5.8% month-over-month. The brand’s portion of total deliveries expanded to 59.1%, substantially higher than the 33.6% recorded twelve months earlier.
Onvo Performance Weighs on Total Figures
The concerning narrative centered on Onvo’s performance. This family-oriented sub-brand delivered merely 8,810 vehicles during August, plummeting 46.4% year-over-year and contracting 13.2% versus July. This marked Onvo’s third consecutive monthly sequential decline. The brand’s contribution to overall deliveries compressed to 24.6%, down sharply from 52.5% in the comparable year-ago period.
The company’s third brand, Firefly, contributed 5,852 vehicle deliveries, climbing 34.7% year-over-year and edging up 1.4% from the previous month.
Year-to-date through August, NIO has recorded 262,893 vehicle deliveries in 2026, representing a 57.9% increase compared to the corresponding period last year. Total cumulative deliveries since the company’s inception have now surpassed 1.26 million vehicles.
Regarding second-quarter performance specifically, NIO achieved 107,658 vehicle deliveries, advancing 49.4% annually but falling short of management’s guidance range spanning 110,000 to 115,000 units. This guidance miss has contributed to investor hesitation preceding the earnings announcement.
Analyst estimates project Q2 revenue of $4.95 billion, representing a 33.8% increase from Q1’s $3.70 billion. The Street forecasts an adjusted loss of $0.02 per share, compared to a breakeven result in the preceding quarter. Consensus expectations also anticipate an EBITDA loss totaling $268.98 million and an operating loss of $93.96 million, expanding from the prior quarter’s $44.77 million.
Battery-Swap Infrastructure Expansion Continues
Deutsche Bank maintains a somewhat more positive outlook, forecasting Q2 non-GAAP net income of 180 million yuan (approximately $26.8 million), attributing this to an improved sales mix favoring higher-margin SUV models.
On the infrastructure development front, NIO inaugurated its 90th Power Journeys battery-swap corridor, a 989-kilometer circuit through Northern Shanxi that links prominent cultural landmarks including the Yungang Grottoes and the Hanging Temple. The company has established a target of 100 Power Journeys routes by year’s end.
NIO intends to deploy approximately 100 battery-swap stations monthly, accelerating to 150 installations per month by December, pursuing a long-term objective of 8,000 operational stations by 2030. As of August 31, the company operated 4,100 battery-swap stations, 5,200 charging stations, and 30,200 individual charging piles. The network has successfully completed over 120 million battery swap transactions.
Wall Street sentiment remains divided. Goldman Sachs elevated NIO to “buy” status with a $7 price target in July. Bank of America maintains a “neutral” rating with a $6.80 target. According to MarketBeat data, the consensus rating stands at “hold” with an average price target of $6.57. Institutional ownership represents 48.55% of outstanding shares, with multiple firms including XY Capital and HighTower Advisors expanding their positions during Q2.
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