Key Takeaways
- Bernstein reaffirmed its “underperform” stance on NVO, setting a 203 Danish kroner price targetārepresenting a potential 33% decline from the August 7 closing price of 305.10 kroner.
- The firm reduced its earnings per share projections for 2026-2031 by as much as 15% beneath consensus estimates, pointing to deteriorating U.S. market position versus Eli Lilly.
- By 2028, Bernstein predicts Lilly’s Foundayo will capture the dominant position in U.S. oral obesity treatments, overtaking Novo’s Wegovy pill.
- Wegovy pill revenue reached approximately $497 million, falling short of analyst expectations and heightening investor worries.
- Wall Street consensus remains neutral at “Hold” with a mean price target of $65.81; shares closed Friday at $47.21.
Shares of Novo Nordisk began Friday’s trading session at $47.21, marking a significant retreat from the 52-week peak of $64.16, as mounting analyst skepticism weighs on the Danish pharmaceutical giant.
Bernstein recently quantified the potential downside ahead. The research firm kept its “underperform” designation intact while marginally increasing its target to 203 Danish kroner from the previous 200 kroner. This valuation suggests a 33% drop from the stock’s August 7 closing level of 305.10 kroner.
The brokerage reduced its 2026 earnings per share outlook to 20.19 kroner, placing it 7% beneath Wall Street’s collective forecast. Looking further ahead, Bernstein’s 2031 projection of 24.20 kroner sits 15% under Street expectations. The firm characterized its bull/bear analysis as “negatively skewed,” identifying merely 4% potential upside while warning of 40% downside risk to its 2035 EBIT estimates.
The fundamental challenge stems from Eli Lilly. Bernstein anticipates that Lilly’s Foundayo will secure the majority of the U.S. oral obesity medication market by 2028, directly undermining growth assumptions for Wegovy’s pill formulation.
Bernstein has also abandoned its previous optimism regarding Cagri-sema. The drug’s REDEFINE-4 trial results, released in February 2026, demonstrated failure to achieve non-inferiority versus Lilly’s Zepbound. This outcome eliminates a significant pipeline opportunity that investors had factored into their valuations.
Wegovy Pill Revenue Shortfall Compounds Concerns
The oral Wegovy formulation generated approximately $497 million in sales during the latest reporting period, slightly below Wall Street projections. Chief Executive Mike Doustdar and Chief Financial Officer Karina Hertmann have begun recalibrating market expectations, emphasizing a more measured growth strategy moving forward.
On a brighter note, Novo elevated its full-year revenue and earnings guidance for the second consecutive time this year. The pharmaceutical company posted second-quarter revenue of $11.98 billion alongside earnings per share of $0.94. Additionally, a Texas court dismissed antitrust allegations claiming Novo and Lilly inappropriately limited access to compounded GLP-1 medications, clearing one regulatory uncertainty.
Bernstein modestly increased its valuation target following the addition of coramitug projectionsāan antibody licensed from Prothena currently undergoing phase 3 testing for ATTR-cardiomyopathy. The brokerage estimates peak revenue of $928 million for this treatment, substantially below the consensus forecast of $6.3 billion.
Institutional Investment Activity Signals Caution
Teamwork Financial Advisors dramatically reduced its NVO position by 94.9% during the second quarter, divesting 95,033 shares while maintaining only 5,091 shares valued at approximately $244,000. Other institutional investors executed smaller position adjustments in both directions throughout the quarter.
Institutional ownership now accounts for 11.54% of outstanding shares. The company maintains a market capitalization of $210.77 billion, trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.54, and established a one-year low of $35.12.
Among 21 Wall Street analysts monitored by MarketBeat, five recommend purchasing NVO shares, fifteen advise holding current positions, and one suggests selling. The average price target across all analysts is $65.81.
The company announced a dividend distribution of $0.5786 per share, scheduled for August 25 payment to shareholders registered as of August 17.
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