Key Takeaways
- Bernstein and KeyBanc both moved Salesforce (CRM) to Sector Weight ratings on the same trading day
- Core concern centers on disappointing traction and client response to the Agentforce AI platform
- Shares declined over 4% during premarket hours Thursday, hovering near $159
- CIO survey data reveals growing number of IT leaders planning to reduce Salesforce budget allocation
- KeyBanc’s Jackson Ader highlighted that enterprise data infrastructure remains insufficiently structured for advanced AI applications
Salesforce faced a challenging start to Thursday’s session. Shares tumbled over 4% before the opening bell following simultaneous rating cuts from both Bernstein and KeyBanc Capital Markets, with analysts from both firms identifying identical concerns: the Agentforce platform is underperforming expectations.
The stock changed hands around $159 during early trading hours, representing a decline from Wednesday’s closing price of $166.58.
Jackson Ader from KeyBanc reduced his rating on CRM from Overweight to Sector Weight, stating he discovered “little to no evidence, other than the valuation multiple, that the stock lends itself to a bullish recommendation.” This represents a frank acknowledgment that positive catalysts have become scarce.
Ader recognized the timing was less than optimal. Salesforce shares have already retreated 37% year-to-date, and he conceded the downgrade arrives “better late than never.”
The fundamental challenge extends beyond price metrics — it’s about product execution. Following attendance at various partner and customer conferences, Ader concluded that enterprise client data remains inadequately organized to support meaningful artificial intelligence initiatives.
Agentforce, the company’s premier AI solution, received pointed critique. According to Ader, the platform “just isn’t there,” with implementation partners only beginning to transition proof-of-concept demonstrations into legitimate sales opportunities.
IT Leadership Survey Reveals Spending Shift
A Bernstein survey of chief information officers reinforced these apprehensions. The research found more CIOs anticipate reducing Salesforce’s share of IT spending over the coming year compared to those planning increases. This directional trend represents a significant warning signal.
Bernstein further observed that Salesforce emerged as “a standout for the wrong reasons” within the survey results — hardly the positioning a company desires while promoting an AI-driven growth narrative.
The research firm indicated difficulty locating substantiation in published financials that net-new average order values are expanding more rapidly than overall AOV growth — a claim management has emphasized in investor communications.
Valuation Assessment Proves Complex
The valuation landscape presents more complexity than surface-level analysis suggests. While Salesforce certainly trades at historically compressed multiples, with its enterprise-value to free-cash-flow ratio sitting roughly 80% beneath post-2020 highs, the relative picture tells a different story.
Ader challenged the “undervalued” thesis. Compared against software sector peers, CRM trades at approximately median levels — and actually above competitors when adjusted for growth rates. The apparent discount diminishes under closer examination.
Bernstein continues to recognize Salesforce as a deeply embedded platform with durable customer relationships. That fundamental assessment remains intact. What’s shifted is the projected timeframe for any substantial growth acceleration driven by Agentforce adoption.
Bernstein indicated that proof of meaningful acceleration appears “further out than we’d expected, if it plays out at all.” This marks a noteworthy change from a firm that previously defended Salesforce against broader SaaS sector pessimism.
Ader articulated the challenge directly: “Larger or longer acceleration is needed to deliver upside, and that, it seems, will be hard to come by in 2026.”
Salesforce had not provided commentary to media inquiries by press time.
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