Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares declined 6.4% to $130.66, dipping beneath the company’s $135 IPO price during Thursday’s session.
- Elon Musk announced the Starship upper stage catch would occur “in a few months” rather than on the upcoming test flight.
- The anticipated 14th Starship test flight was expected to showcase the upper stage catch utilizing the tower’s mechanical arms.
- Analyst Louie DiPalma from William Blair maintains an Outperform rating, noting the delay isn’t materially significant.
- The company plans to deploy Starmind AI computing satellites by 2027, a mission likely dependent on Starship’s capabilities.
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) fell 6.4% to $130.66 during Thursday’s midday trading session, dropping below the company’s $135 initial public offering price following CEO Elon Musk’s announcement regarding a postponement in the Starship upper stage capture timeline.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
In a post on X, Musk indicated the company would “probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months,” tempering expectations that this significant achievement would occur during the next scheduled test launch.
The upcoming 14th Starship test flight, anticipated for later this month, had been widely expected to demonstrate the upper stage catch capability. SpaceX previously accomplished this maneuver with the Super Heavy booster during the October 2024 Flight 5 mission, employing the massive mechanical “Mechazilla” arms located at the Starbase facility in Texas.
That booster capture technique was successfully replicated in subsequent missions, including Flight 7, demonstrating the system’s reliability. However, capturing the upper stage presents significantly greater technical challenges, as it must handle substantially higher velocities and thermal stresses during its return from near-orbital altitudes.
Musk additionally revealed that the inaugural reflight of a Starship vehicle is projected for late 2026 or early 2027.
With the S&P 500 declining just 0.5% during Thursday’s trading, SpaceX’s decline considerably exceeded broader market movements.
Analyst Perspective
Louie DiPalma, an analyst with William Blair, challenged the market’s negative reaction to the news. In his Thursday research note, he characterized the postponement as “not that consequential” given that SpaceX remains “likely a full decade ahead of peers” in rocket reusability technology.
DiPalma maintains an Outperform rating on the stock without establishing a specific price target. At William Blair, this rating designation indicates the analyst anticipates the stock will outperform market benchmarks.
While recognizing the schedule adjustment, he highlighted the company’s substantial overall achievements: Starship continues advancing toward complete reusability, enabling both rocket stages to land back at the launch site, undergo refueling, and launch again with minimal turnaround time.
This rapid turnaround capability represents the foundation of SpaceX’s cost-efficiency strategy, with Musk projecting it could reduce orbital launch costs by a hundredfold or greater.
Implications for SpaceX’s Future
SpaceX stock has experienced considerable fluctuation since its landmark June initial public offering. Thursday’s decline represents one of the most substantial single-session movements since the company began trading publicly.
Starship development carries implications extending well beyond the test flight program itself. The company has established 2027 as its target date for deploying Starmind AI computing satellites, a mission almost certainly requiring Starship’s heavy-lift capabilities.
SpaceX contends that space-based data centers utilizing these satellites will provide a substantial competitive edge in artificial intelligence over rivals constrained by terrestrial infrastructure limitations.
The 13th Starship test conducted in July was characterized as successful by the company. SpaceX indicated that mission performance data would inform the decision regarding a catch attempt on the subsequent flight, though Musk’s recent communication confirms that schedule has been extended.
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