Key Takeaways
- Elon Musk declared on X that SpaceX could become “worth more than the rest of Earth” upon reaching its objectives
- The company debuted publicly on June 12 at $135 per share in an $86 billion offering ā history’s largest IPO ā peaking at $225.64
- Shares retreated 26% from peak levels before stabilizing near $152; premarket Friday showed SPCX declining 1.5% to $149.96
- Financial analysts present divergent price projections spanning from $75 (pessimistic outlook) to $900 (Citi optimistic scenario), averaging approximately $240
- Industry forecasts indicate SpaceX requires roughly $150 billion in additional capital from 2026 through 2031 for orbital AI infrastructure development
Space Exploration Technologies CEO Elon Musk delivered his most audacious valuation forecast to date Thursday, declaring on X that the aerospace manufacturer will be “worth more than the rest of Earth” should the enterprise achieve its strategic objectives.
Musk’s statement emerged as a response to backlash surrounding a purported agreement linking Anthropic, xAI, and SpaceX involving AI computational resources. An X platform user contended the partnership might represent “the biggest unforced error of the AI era” for Anthropic. Musk redirected attention toward SpaceX’s expansive future vision.
Premarket trading Friday showed SpaceX stock (SPCX) at $149.96, representing a 1.5% decline. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures remained unchanged while Dow futures advanced 0.2%.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
This isn’t Musk’s inaugural instance of extraordinary financial projections. Back in 2022, he predicted Tesla’s market capitalization would eclipse the combined value of Apple and Saudi Aramco ā entities collectively valued at approximately $4.4 trillion then. Tesla’s current valuation hovers around $1.8 trillion.
Musk frequently invokes the Kardashev Scale, a theoretical model categorizing civilizations according to energy consumption capacity. His declared objective involves humanity capturing solar energy output ā achievements dwarfing anything terrestrial enterprises currently accomplish.
SpaceX launched its public offering June 12 with shares priced at $135, generating $86 billion in what became the largest initial public offering ever recorded. Trading commenced at $150 and skyrocketed 50% to a record $225.64 on June 16, momentarily elevating the company’s market capitalization toward $3 trillion.
The momentum proved temporary. Investor apprehension regarding bond issuance plans, substantial Terafab data center capital expenditures, and approaching insider share lockup expirations pressured the stock significantly. SPCX plummeted 26% from its zenith, reaching $145.20, before finding support around $152.
July 7 marked SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 index, generating approximately $4.3 billion in passive investment inflows as index tracking funds acquired positions.
Analyst Perspectives
Over a dozen financial analysts published initial coverage reports following the public debut. The spectrum of price targets reveals significant disagreement. Raymond James established the highest target at $800. Citi’s optimistic projection extends to $900, suggesting a potential valuation approaching $12 trillion. Morgan Stanley positioned its base target at $300, with an optimistic case reaching $600 and a pessimistic scenario at $75 ā the latter presuming Starship remains non-operational until 2029.
According to FactSet data, the consensus analyst price target sits around $240.
Wall Street projections anticipate SpaceX generating revenues exceeding $630 billion by 2031, a substantial increase from the roughly $39 billion anticipated in 2026. Operating profits are forecast to surpass $340 billion by 2031, up from approximately $1 billion this year.
Financing Requirements
Achieving this trajectory demands substantial capital investment. Financial analysts calculate SpaceX will require approximately $150 billion in supplementary financing spanning 2026 to 2031 for constructing its orbital artificial intelligence infrastructure.
Regarding revenue streams, Anthropic currently compensates SpaceX $1.25 billion monthly for utilizing the Colossus 1 AI supercluster ā comprising over 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs and 300 MW power capacity ā through an arrangement potentially totaling $30 to $40 billion.
SpaceX additionally accomplished its 80th Falcon 9 launch this year during the current week, maintaining its satellite deployment schedule.
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