Key Takeaways
- Glenn Thum from Phillip Securities maintains a Sell stance on SPCX, targeting $75 per shareārepresenting a potential 47% decline from present values.
- NYU professor Scott Galloway describes SpaceX as “crazy overvalued,” estimating fair value between $10 and $30 per share.
- The company delivered exceptional Q2 results with revenue climbing 92% year-over-year to reach $7.8 billion, triggering a 17% stock surge.
- Following a peak near $149, SPCX has retreated over 4%, currently hovering around $140 per share.
- Despite bearish voices, the majority of Wall Street maintains optimism, averaging a 12-month target of $232.35.
SpaceX (SPCX) shares are currently changing hands around $140.50 following a dramatic post-earnings climb that encountered significant resistance in the $149 zone. The equity has surrendered more than 4% over the last 24 hours, with several market observers suggesting additional downside could be ahead.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
On August 17, Glenn Thum of Phillip Securities reaffirmed his Sell recommendation while maintaining a 12-month objective of $75. Reaching that level would translate to approximately a 47% haircut from where shares currently trade.
Thum’s skepticism stems from substantial capital investment requirements, concentrated revenue exposure within the AI sector, and questions about the durability of certain cloud service agreements. According to his analysis, a fundamental valuation shift would necessitate more extended customer contract commitments.
SpaceX’s second-quarter 2026 performance painted an undeniably strong picture. Aggregate revenue soared 92% compared to the prior year, reaching $7.8 billion. Connectivity segment revenue expanded 66% to $4.3 billion, with Starlink’s subscriber base doubling to 12 million users. AI-related revenue exploded 247% to $2.6 billion, propelled by fresh cloud infrastructure partnerships.
Skeptical Voices Gain Volume
Scott Galloway, the marketing professor at NYU and prominent podcaster, expressed even more pronounced pessimism than Thum. During a podcast episode released this Monday, he valued SpaceX between $10 and $30 per share.
“It’s still crazy overvalued,” Galloway stated. “I think this is a $10 to $30 stock.”
His conservative projection would place SPCX’s worth at less than 7% of its current trading price. Even accepting his more generous estimate, the stock would be valued at approximately one-fifth of today’s level.
Galloway identified constrained float as a critical factor behind the initial price explosion. At the time of the IPO, merely 4% to 5% of SpaceX’s outstanding shares were accessible for public trading, creating supply scarcity. The company’s expedited inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 subsequently compelled index-tracking funds to acquire positions.
He additionally highlighted a $25 billion bond issuance executed shortly following the IPO, despite SpaceX maintaining $100.8 billion in cash reserves. This maneuver, according to Galloway, suggests the organization’s expansion trajectory increasingly relies on debt financing.
Additional Bearish Perspectives Emerge
George Noble, previously with Fidelity Overseas Fund, characterized SpaceX as among “the best shorts in the market.” He forecasts the stock could tumble as much as 50% before year-end and believes it should be valued around $30.
“Grandma’s 401(k) now owns a $2 trillion company at roughly 90 times revenues. That’s outrageous,” Noble remarked.
Noble also took issue with the speed of SPCX’s Nasdaq-100 addition, contending the decision created artificial buying pressure.
Interestingly, Galloway clarified he wouldn’t personally establish a short position. He recognized that Musk’s talent for generating market enthusiasm could propel SPCX upward irrespective of underlying fundamentals, noting the stock could exhibit meme-like characteristics should Musk announce another attention-grabbing initiative.
The consensus on Wall Street, however, paints a considerably rosier picture. Among 31 analysts monitored by TipRanks, the mean 12-month price projection stands at $232.35, implying potential appreciation of 64%. The most bullish forecast on record reaches $800.
At the time of this writing, SPCX commands a market capitalization of approximately $1.9 trillion.
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