Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares jumped 16% Friday as the initial lockup period ended without triggering anticipated insider sell-offs
- Monday premarket saw shares climb an additional 3.1%, reaching $137.09
- Citi maintained its $200 price target while upgrading 2026/27 projections, forecasting nearly $1 trillion in revenue by 2031
- Second quarter revenue reached $7.81 billion, representing 91.9% year-over-year growth and surpassing EPS forecasts
- Another lockup period concludes August 20, releasing approximately 7% more restricted shares
In Monday’s premarket trading session, SpaceX (SPCX) shares climbed to $137.09, marking a 3.1% increase and building on Friday’s impressive 16% rally that followed the uneventful conclusion of the company’s first lockup period.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Market analysts had anticipated significant selling pressure Thursday when approximately 911 million restricted insider shares became available for trading. However, this anticipated wave of selling failed to materialize. Short positions found themselves in a squeeze, while institutional investors waiting for lower entry points seized the opportunity to acquire shares.
Prior to the unlock event, just around 5% of SpaceX’s total shares traded on the open market. The float has now grown beyond 1.5 billion shares, enabling institutional investors to establish substantial positions without causing the dramatic price swings that characterized the stock’s initial trading period.
Despite recent gains, the stock has experienced turbulence since its June 12 public debut. After reaching a closing peak of $192.58 on June 15āmerely three days post-listingāshares declined approximately 30% through Friday’s session.
On Monday, Citi reaffirmed its $200 price objective while increasing revenue projections for 2026 and 2027, estimating SpaceX could achieve approximately $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2031. Notably, SpaceX management has indicated they anticipate reaching this milestone by 2030, one year ahead of Citi’s timeline.
Citi analysts expressed “greater confidence in management’s vision than consensus,” representing a strong endorsement despite the stock’s recent price fluctuations.
Second Quarter Results Exceed Projections
On August 4, SpaceX unveiled its Q2 financial results. The company generated $7.81 billion in revenue, marking a 91.9% increase compared to the prior year period. The adjusted loss of $0.09 per share outperformed analyst consensus expectations of a $0.26 loss.
Capital expenditures remain a focal point for investors. The company allocated $18.4 billion toward capex during the quarter, predominantly directed at AI infrastructure development, with management signaling that this elevated spending pattern will persist.
Terafab Partnership with Tesla
SpaceX and Tesla revealed a collaborative $16.8 billion commitment to construct Terafab, a semiconductor manufacturing facility located in Grimes County, Texas. This plant aims to produce proprietary AI chips supporting Tesla’s robotics initiatives and SpaceX’s space-based computing infrastructure.
Elon Musk additionally indicated that Starship may have overcome a critical technical challenge that could enhance launch cost-efficiency moving forward.
Among Wall Street analysts covering SPCX, 3 assign a Strong Buy rating, 25 recommend Buy, 9 suggest Hold, and 2 rate it Sell. The consensus price target stands at $229.71.
The subsequent lockup expiration arrives August 20, which will release an additional 7% of restricted shares currently held by employees and pre-IPO investors.
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