Key Takeaways
- Shares of SpaceX declined 0.4% during Thursday’s premarket session following skeptical analyst commentary
- Daiwa Securities initiated coverage with a neutral Hold recommendation and $175 target price
- Research firm Kailash Concepts highlighted the company’s approximately 100x trailing revenue multiple as a major warning sign
- The aerospace stock has retreated roughly 22% from its all-time high following its public market debut
- Expiring insider lockup agreements may create additional selling pressure in coming months
SpaceX shares experienced a modest decline in Thursday’s premarket session, trading at $157.54, as a pair of analyst reports questioned the sustainability of the company’s elevated valuation metrics.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Daiwa Securities analyst Jonathan Kees initiated research coverage with a neutral Hold rating alongside a $175 price objective. While not outright bearish, the Hold stance signals limited upside potential from current levels.
More pointed criticism emerged from Kailash Concepts, an analytical firm combining quantitative metrics with fundamental research principles. Their assessment was particularly blunt.
The research house noted that SpaceX currently trades at approximately 100 times its trailing revenue — a valuation extreme they characterize as problematic. Their historical analysis reveals that companies valued above 10 times sales underperform the S&P 500 in approximately two-thirds of cases over a three-year period, with relative losses exceeding 30%.
“To state the obvious, 100 times sales is a valuation that is ten times higher than 10 times sales,” the research firm noted.
Among the 13 analysts currently tracking SpaceX, seven maintain Buy recommendations. Price objectives span from $165 to $310. Significantly, none of the bulge-bracket underwriters who managed the IPO have published their views yet — those are expected within weeks.
Historical IPO Trends
SpaceX executed the largest initial public offering on record, with shares surging 19% during the first trading session — precisely matching the mean first-day performance for IPOs dating back to 1980, per University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter’s research.
However, historical precedents paint a cautionary picture. Analysis of the 15 largest U.S. IPOs since 2006 shows these stocks declined an average of approximately 50% from their offering price at some juncture during year one. Mean first-year performance for this cohort registered losses around 33%.
Shares have already pulled back about 22% from peak levels. Should historical patterns hold, additional weakness may materialize.
One potential catalyst: SpaceX is scheduled for inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 Index following the close on July 6, 2026. Such additions typically generate buying activity from exchange-traded funds and index strategies required to maintain full index representation.
Approaching Lockup Expirations
The more significant near-term concern for shareholders may emerge post-earnings.
After SpaceX reports second-quarter financial results, anticipated in mid-August, company insiders become eligible to liquidate 20% of qualifying shares. This percentage increases if the stock maintains trading levels at least 30% above the IPO price for five out of 10 consecutive sessions prior to the quarterly announcement.
Additional time-based restrictions expire incrementally, permitting insiders to divest up to 7% of their positions at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days following the IPO. Post-third quarter earnings, an additional 28% could become available for sale.
Kailash Concepts also referenced Elon Musk’s execution timeline, observing that Tesla’s autonomous driving capabilities materialized far later than original projections suggested. They characterized SpaceX’s $2.2 trillion market capitalization as heavily dependent on deploying up to one million orbital AI data center satellites in low Earth orbit within a two-to-three-year timeframe.
SpaceX recorded $18.7 billion in revenue during the prior fiscal year. The company declined to provide comment for this report.
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