TLDR
- SPCX shares advanced 1% in Thursday’s premarket session to $193.75 following Wednesday’s inaugural decline of 5% to $191.82
- Shares remain elevated 42% above the company’s $135 IPO pricing established June 12
- The Zephirin Group established a $310 valuation, highlighting limited float with approximately 640 million tradeable shares
- Arete’s Andrew Beale delivered the street-high $401 target, implying roughly $5.3 trillion market capitalization
- Analyst coverage spans from $63 (Morningstar’s bearish view) to $401 (Arete’s bullish case), averaging $156 across six firms
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) recovered ground Thursday following Wednesday’s historic first decline. During premarket hours, the stock advanced 1% to $193.75 after Wednesday’s 5% retreat that settled at $191.82.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The recent pullback hasn’t erased SPCX’s substantial gains since its market entry at $135. The aerospace company’s shares peaked at $225.64—representing a 67% surge—during three straight sessions of gains before Wednesday’s reversal.
Broader market weakness contributed to Wednesday’s decline. The Nasdaq retreated 1.3% following the Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates and disappointing retail sales figures suggesting weakening consumer demand.
Thursday morning brought fresh optimism via two new analyst initiations. The Zephirin Group highlighted what they termed an “underappreciated supply-demand imbalance,” noting merely 640 million shares circulating in the market. This limited supply creates challenges for over 300 index funds seeking SpaceX exposure. Their price objective: $310.
Arete’s Andrew Beale went further, establishing a Buy rating with a $401 price target. Beale’s thesis centers on Starlink v3 satellites—advanced units offering enhanced capabilities compared to current models. The caveat: deployment depends on Starship, SpaceX’s next-generation launch vehicle still progressing toward full operational status.
Beale’s $401 target implies approximately $5.3 trillion valuation, representing 80x projected 2027 revenue.
What the Bulls Are Saying
Oppenheimer analyst Timothy Horan characterized the company as “the only vertically integrated AI company with the required capital, data, LLMs, hardware, manufacturing and engineering talent.” His research points to a potential $10 trillion market opportunity by 2035, anchored by space-based data center infrastructure.
KGI Securities launched coverage with an outperform rating and $227 target. Wolfe Research established a $175 objective, also rating shares outperform.
Where the Bears Stand
Skepticism persists at current valuation levels. CFRA’s Keith Snyder assigned a sell rating with a $115 price objective. His primary concern centers on SpaceX’s dependence on Starship, which remains pre-commercial.
Snyder cautioned that Starship complications “could ripple across nearly every major growth initiative.” He raised additional red flags regarding the company’s capital-intensive operations and cash flow generation.
Morningstar takes the most conservative stance at $63, constructing three distinct AI business scenarios. Their analysis suggests that even under an optimistic “moonshot” case, SpaceX would require a 77% probability of clearing engineering obstacles and executing multiple weekly Starship launches to validate the $135 IPO valuation.
Current analyst consensus across six firms averages $156—significantly below the stock’s recent trading level near $208.
With options markets now operational and passive index funds accumulating positions, supply-demand mechanics are exerting considerable influence on near-term price movements.
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