Key Takeaways
- XRP is approaching a rare death cross formation between its 20-week and 200-week EMA around the $1.39–$1.40 level
- Historical data shows previous death cross events resulted in price rebounds of 20% and 82.7%
- Short liquidation data reveals $236.5 million in positions concentrated at the $1.37–$1.40 range
- Analyst Cryptollica notes XRP has reached current oversold levels only three times in its 13-year history
- Cycle-based models from analysts EGRAG CRYPTO and CW suggest long-term price targets ranging from $5.70 to $8.00
As of June 23, 2026, XRP is hovering around the $1.13–$1.14 mark, retreating from recent peaks while displaying a convergence of technical indicators that market analysts believe could trigger a near-term relief rally of approximately 25%.
The 20-week exponential moving average for XRP currently hovers just above its 200-week EMA, positioned near $1.39 and $1.40 respectively. Should the shorter-term average dip beneath the longer-term one following a weekly close, it would create a rarely-seen death cross formation.
While this pattern typically carries bearish connotations, historical precedent shows this specific crossover has consistently been followed by mean-reversion rallies back toward the longer-term average.
During 2019, XRP experienced approximately a 20% recovery following a comparable formation. The 2022 occurrence produced an even more substantial 82.7% bounce. In both instances, the 200-week EMA functioned as a price attractor.
If history repeats itself, traders could witness a movement back toward the $1.39–$1.40 range — representing approximately 23% to 25% gains from present levels.
The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for XRP currently sits marginally above 30, a level commonly linked with oversold market conditions. Such readings typically indicate diminishing selling pressure.
Massive Short Position Cluster Near $1.40
Liquidation heatmap analysis from CoinGlass reveals a concentrated $236.5 million block of short liquidations positioned within the $1.37–$1.40 range above XRP’s current trading level.
Should XRP initiate an upward movement, short sellers within this zone would face forced buybacks of their positions. This buying activity could provide additional momentum pushing price toward the $1.40 threshold.
On Sunday, analyst Cryptollica highlighted that XRP’s 10-day RSI has declined to the low-30s range, approaching levels historically associated with significant accumulation phases during previous market cycles.
“In 13 years, XRP has only been this washed out 3 times,” Cryptollica stated. “The first 2 times, the crowd laughed, ignored it, and only understood the setup after price had already left.”
Cryptollica’s technical chart also illustrates XRP maintaining position above the lower boundary of a long-term ascending channel that has connected significant macro lows dating back to 2017. This support line currently sits around $0.75.
Large Holder Activity and Extended Price Projections
Analyst EGRAG CRYPTO employs a cycle-based framework centered on a “Central Line” — representing a macro equilibrium level that distinguishes accumulation phases from expansion phases.
Drawing from historical growth cycles ranging from 200% to 330% beyond this equilibrium line, the analytical model projects an optimistic target of $8.00 and a more conservative cycle target of $5.70.
In parallel analysis, analyst CW emphasized increasing divergence between whale wallet activity and retail participation, noting that large holders have been expanding long positions in XRP derivatives.
Analyst Javon Marks observed that each significant momentum bottom throughout XRP’s trading history has subsequently been followed by gains exceeding 10x, suggesting a potential target above $15. He characterized the present technical setup as aligning with a broader historical pattern of increases surpassing 1,000% from comparable low points.
XRP’s 24-hour trading volume currently registers at $1.45 billion, with its market capitalization standing at $70.99 billion, after posting a 6.02% increase over the past 24 hours.
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