Key Takeaways
- SPCX reached a record low of $132.75 on Wednesday, dipping beneath its $135 initial public offering price
- Shares have declined more than 30% from the all-time peak of $225.64 reached shortly after the June public debut
- The company plans to conduct its 13th Starship test flight on Thursday, with liftoff scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET
- Analyst sentiment remains positive: 27 out of 31 Wall Street experts maintain Buy or Strong Buy recommendations, with a consensus target of $242
- Needham reaffirmed its Buy stance while increasing its price objective to $250 from $200
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) tumbled to $133.23 during Wednesday’s midday session, marking the first time the stock has traded beneath its $135 IPO level. The shares bottomed at $132.75 — establishing a fresh all-time low — representing a decline of approximately 2-3% for the session.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The current price represents a dramatic reversal from the stock’s initial performance. SPCX made its public market debut at $150 on June 12, quickly rallied to reach an all-time peak of $225.64 merely four trading days later, but has experienced consistent selling pressure since. The shares are currently trading more than 30% below that high-water mark and approximately 12% lower for the year.
Investor sentiment has been weighed down by elevated valuation questions and concerns that early stakeholders may begin liquidating positions, potentially accelerating the downward momentum. The stock has lacked meaningful positive catalysts to stabilize its trajectory.
That narrative could shift as early as this week.
Thursday’s Starship Test 13: Critical Milestone Ahead
SpaceX has scheduled the 13th test mission of its Starship vehicle, with a 90-minute launch opportunity beginning at 6:45 p.m. ET on Thursday. This marks just the second flight utilizing Starship’s Version 3 configuration — an upgraded design offering enhanced size and capability compared to earlier iterations.
The mission objectives include deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites from the vehicle’s upper stage, executing an in-orbit restart of a single Raptor engine, and concluding with a controlled atmospheric reentry followed by splashdown in the Indian Ocean.
The previous test flight in May encountered significant challenges. The Super Heavy booster sustained thermal damage during stage separation, experienced engine restart failure during its descent phase, and was ultimately destroyed. The company will be working to demonstrate improved performance this time around.
Starship represents a cornerstone of SpaceX’s strategic roadmap — supporting heavy-lift launch services, satellite constellation deployment, orbital AI computing facilities, and future lunar and Martian missions. RBC analyst Ken Herbert characterizes it as the “flywheel” powering SpaceX’s comprehensive value generation strategy.
Herbert, an experienced aerospace sector analyst, toured the Starbase facility in Boca Chica, Texas, describing the operation as “mind-blowing” and comparing its scale and level of automation to “multiple Costcos.” His price target for SPCX stands at $225.
Analyst Community Remains Optimistic
Notwithstanding the stock’s recent underperformance, the analyst community maintains a predominantly positive outlook. Among 31 analysts tracking SPCX, 27 have assigned Buy or Strong Buy ratings. The consensus price target stands at $242 — representing nearly 80% upside from current trading levels.
Needham recently updated its coverage, maintaining its Buy recommendation while elevating its price target to $250 from a previous $200.
Even bullish analysts like Evercore ISI’s Kutgun Maral recognize that Starship has not yet demonstrated scalable operations — a legitimate concern given that the first commercial payload mission is anticipated during the latter half of this year.
The company is expected to report quarterly results in mid-August, providing investors with another upcoming data point. In the immediate term, Thursday’s Starship test flight represents the most significant near-term catalyst.
SPCX concluded Wednesday’s trading session at $134.76.
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