Key Highlights
- Shares of Nebius Group surged up to 9%, reaching $248.90 during Thursday’s trading session.
- BNP Paribas elevated its rating to Outperform from Neutral, lifting the price target from $260 to $399.
- The rating boost highlights the company’s strong pricing dynamics and constrained AI compute availability.
- JPMorgan similarly upgraded CoreWeave on comparable factors, though its shares posted more modest gains.
- Year-to-date, Nebius shares have soared 193%, significantly outperforming major market indices.
Nebius Group delivered an impressive performance Thursday. Shares of the AI infrastructure provider jumped as much as 9% during the session to hit $248.90, building on an initial 6.4% gain that brought the stock to $241.20 at the open.
The sharp move came courtesy of a bullish call from BNP Paribas Exane. Daniel Wang, an analyst at the firm, elevated his outlook on Nebius to Outperform from Neutral while simultaneously increasing his price objective to $399 from the previous $260.
This revised target represents substantial potential appreciation from pre-upgrade levels. The call also positions BNP Paribas among the most optimistic analysts tracking the stock on Wall Street.
What’s driving increased analyst confidence
The rating enhancement arrives on the heels of several corporate developments that have bolstered the investment thesis. Earlier in September, Nebius informed clients of upcoming price increases for its on-demand GPU cloud offerings, effective October 1.
Instance pricing for Nvidia H100, H200, B200, and B300 chips will increase between 17% and 21%. Meanwhile, AMD EPYC Genoa CPU rates are scheduled to rise approximately 25%.
Market observers are interpreting these price hikes as evidence of constrained AI compute availability rather than margin pressure. This marks the company’s second pricing adjustment in recent months.
Nebius delivered Q2 AI cloud revenue totaling $574.9 million, accompanied by an adjusted EBITDA margin approaching 50%. These metrics lend credibility to the pricing strength narrative.
Bank of America’s Tal Liani maintained his Buy recommendation on Nebius Thursday, carrying a $310 price objective. He emphasized the company’s balanced portfolio of extended hyperscaler agreements and shorter-duration, premium-priced arrangements.
According to Liani, Nebius is allocating certain capacity for one- to three-year agreements priced at approximately twice hyperscaler rates. He contends this strategy could drive revenue per watt substantially beyond current Wall Street projections.
The company also maintains two significant agreements with Meta Platforms and Microsoft scheduled to conclude in early 2025. Wang characterized these partnerships as indicators of continued business momentum ahead.
“We expect incremental capacity from Q2 onwards to increasingly reflect higher priced AI cloud contracts,” Wang wrote in his note.
Nebius performance versus CoreWeave
Nebius wasn’t the only AI infrastructure player receiving an analyst boost Thursday. JPMorgan’s Samik Chatterjee upgraded CoreWeave to Overweight from Neutral, raising his price target to $125 from $120.
CoreWeave shares advanced as well, though by a more modest 4% to reach $90.14. Nebius has delivered a remarkable 193% return year-to-date, while CoreWeave has posted a 25% gain during the same period.
Chatterjee highlighted the identical dynamic underpinning the Nebius thesis: escalating AI compute pricing. Research from Northland Equity Capital Markets indicates hourly compute rental rates have climbed roughly 33% since December.
Broader market conditions weren’t supportive of the advance. The Nasdaq declined 0.5%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.4%, and the Dow retreated 0.4% during Thursday’s session, indicating Nebius’s rally stemmed purely from company-specific catalysts.
Despite Thursday’s strong showing, Nebius shares remain below their 52-week peak of $299.86. The company’s market capitalization currently stands at approximately $64.19 billion, with daily trading volume averaging around 20.4 million shares.
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