TLDR
- Bullion dropped 0.5% to $4,120.16 per ounce Tuesday as the greenback gained strength
- Euro hit 17-month lows following French political chaos, driving dollar demand higher
- Treasury yields surged to levels unseen in decades, increasing gold’s holding costs
- Rate swap markets now price only 23% odds of an October Fed increase, down from nearly 70% seven days prior
- Wednesday’s release of September Federal Reserve meeting minutes expected to signal future policy direction
Gold prices retreated Tuesday as a firmer U.S. currency and elevated Treasury yields overwhelmed diminishing prospects for additional Federal Reserve tightening. Bullion for immediate delivery declined 0.5% to $4,120.16 per ounce. Futures contracts shed 0.2% to settle at $4,146.80.
Other precious metals followed suit, with silver sliding 1.2% to $60.35 per ounce. Platinum surrendered 1.3% to reach $1,703.71, and palladium weakened 1.4% to $1,161.00.
Greenback Rally Pressures Precious Metals
The U.S. Dollar Index advanced 0.1% to 102.27 during Tuesday’s session. The currency had approached yearly peaks the previous day.
France’s political instability contributed significantly to the dollar’s upward momentum. Heavy selling in French sovereign debt sent the euro plunging to its weakest level in 17 months.
Emmanuel Moulin, Governor of the Bank of France, cautioned that the nation risks facing greater limitations from elevated borrowing costs should it fail to address fiscal imbalances. French bond yields continued their ascent following his remarks.
An appreciating dollar raises the cost of bullion for international buyers holding alternative currencies. This dynamic generally exerts downward force on precious metal valuations.
Bond Market Selloff Compounds Headwinds
U.S. government bonds faced renewed selling pressure Monday. Longer-maturity yields climbed to fresh multi-decade peaks as the fixed-income selloff intensified.
Elevated yields raise the opportunity cost associated with holding non-yielding assets like gold. Since bullion generates no income, capital frequently migrates to bonds when rates climb.
The Institute for Supply Management released data revealing that price pressures within America’s services sector accelerated to their fastest pace in over four years during the previous month. This development amplified inflation worries already troubling financial markets.
Yet despite these inflationary signals, employment indicators have displayed signs of softening. Federal Reserve policymakers have been resisting market expectations for imminent monetary tightening.
Derivative contracts tracking interest rate expectations indicated approximately 23% likelihood of a Fed increase in October as of Tuesday. This represents a dramatic decline from roughly 70% probability just one week earlier, following disappointing U.S. employment figures.
Financial markets continue anticipating a complete quarter-percentage-point rate increase by the central bank’s December gathering.
The Federal Reserve’s September meeting record is scheduled for release Wednesday. That session represented the first rate increase in three years. Market participants are scrutinizing the minutes for insights into policymakers’ subsequent intentions.
Bullion lost more than 6% throughout September. Energy-fueled inflation fears, anticipation of higher American rates, and the strengthening dollar all factored into the decline.
The yellow metal has surrendered more than one-fifth of its value since hostilities between the US and Iran commenced in late February.
ANZ analysts noted that gold has reclaimed some territory from the previous week’s steep losses. They attributed this to market participants reevaluating mounting fiscal challenges globally.
They further observed that reduced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening have offered modest support. This shift followed the disappointing payroll statistics published last week.
Spot bullion was most recently quoted at $4,139.06 per ounce during Asian market hours. Silver remained relatively stable near $61.05 per ounce.
Platinum drifted marginally lower while palladium posted slight gains. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index maintained its level after advancing for four consecutive weeks.
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