Key Takeaways
- Cathie Wood argues SpaceX’s $1.75 trillion valuation will appear discounted in retrospect, highlighting Starship’s revenue generation capacity
- ARK Invest calculates each Starship deployment could generate approximately $1 billion yearly in Starlink revenues
- Wood forecasts $10 trillion in yearly Starship-driven revenue by 2030 based on 10,000 annual flights
- Elon Musk responded to Wood’s analysis, stating the 10,000-flight objective is “not impossible”
- SPCX debuted at $135 in June, peaked at $225.64, dropped to approximately $104.83, and currently hovers around $142-$152
This week, Cathie Wood took to X to present an aggressive investment thesis for SpaceX stock, characterizing its $1.75 trillion public offering as a “deep value opportunity” driven by what she believes is substantial untapped Starship launch revenue potential.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Wood’s thesis draws from analysis by ARK Invest’s Sam Korus, who calculates that Starlink generates approximately $19 million annually for each terabit per second of network throughput. One Starship mission could place up to 60 next-generation V3 satellites into orbit, contributing roughly 61 terabits per second of additional capacity. This translates to approximately $1 billion in recurring yearly revenue per launch.
Extrapolating from Musk’s ambitious target of 10,000 yearly Starship missions, Wood calculated a potential $10 trillion in annual revenue by decade’s end. Musk responded to her analysis with a succinct comment: “It’s not impossible.”
SPCX shares began trading at $135 in June, opened at $150 on day one, and reached a peak of $225.64. The stock subsequently fell beneath its offering price to approximately $104.83 before rebounding. During Tuesday’s after-hours session, SPCX traded down 0.58% at $142.66.
Critical Assumptions Underlying the Forecast
The $10 trillion revenue estimate relies on several significant assumptions. Korus acknowledged that revenue per terabit per second will probably decrease as overall capacity grows. ARK’s own metrics support this trend: Starlink revenue per terabit per second has already fallen from $23 million in 2024 to $19 million in 2025.
Wood’s calculation also presumes all 10,000 yearly flights would be dedicated to Starlink satellite deployment. However, Musk has discussed using the same launch frequency for point-to-point Earth travel, suggesting not every mission would necessarily expand Starlink infrastructure.
Achieving 10,000 annual flights would demand more than 27 successful missions daily. Since SpaceX’s public debut in June, Starship has completed only two flights, both suborbital in nature.
Upcoming Milestones on the Horizon
SpaceX has scheduled Starship Flight 14 for September 22, subject to regulatory clearance. This mission represents Starship’s inaugural orbital flight and first “revenue-generating flight,” per CFO Bret Johnsen, as it will transport production V3 satellites.
Musk announced this week that V3 constellation deployment commences this month. According to him, V3 will ultimately provide over 100 times the bandwidth of Starlink’s existing network of approximately 11,000 satellites.
For perspective, SpaceX recorded $18.67 billion in revenue during 2025. Musk stated in June that the company “might be able to reach approximately $1T revenue in 2030,” considerably below Wood’s $10 trillion estimate.
Analysts currently rate SPCX as a Moderate Buy, with 26 Buy ratings, 6 Hold ratings, and 2 Sell ratings. The consensus price target stands at $232.07, suggesting approximately 62% potential upside from present levels.
Get 3 Free Stock Ebooks
Discover top-performing stocks in AI, Crypto, and Technology with expert analysis.
- Top 10 AI Stocks - Leading AI companies
- Top 10 Crypto Stocks - Blockchain leaders
- Top 10 Tech Stocks - Tech giants
