Key Takeaways
- SpaceX shares declined more than 1% during Thursday’s pre-market session as 319 million shares became available for trading
- An earlier unlock event on August 6 involving 911 million shares surprisingly resulted in a 6% stock gain
- The stock demonstrates minimal correlation with Magnificent Seven tech giants, behaving instead as a market sentiment indicator
- Wall Street analysts maintain optimistic outlooks with consensus price targets around $232.35, representing potential gains exceeding 66%
- Approximately 40% of total SpaceX shares could trade freely by year-end December
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) declined more than 1% during Thursday’s pre-market hours, trading at $137.60, as an additional 319 million shares were released from lockup restrictions.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
The unlock event provides early-stage investors and company employees the opportunity to liquidate their positions, introducing additional share supply into the marketplace. This marks the second significant unlock in a fortnight, following the release of approximately 911 million shares on August 6.
Interestingly, the previous unlock failed to spark the anticipated selloff. Contrary to expectations, SPCX stock actually climbed over 6% during that session, demonstrating that lockup expirations don’t necessarily precipitate immediate selling pressure.
Thursday’s release accounts for roughly 7% of shares currently subject to trading restrictions. Market participants are monitoring whether this unlock will behave differently than its predecessor.
Additional unlock events remain on the horizon. Another tranche of 319 million shares is anticipated to become available next month in September, followed by subsequent releases. Projections indicate that approximately 40% of the company’s total outstanding shares could trade without restriction by year-end.
The space exploration company enjoyed a solid public market debut, finishing its inaugural trading session at $161.11, representing an approximate 19% premium to its $135 offering price. The stock subsequently reached a post-listing peak of $225.64 before plummeting following disappointing first-quarter earnings results, briefly trading below the $105 mark.
Understanding SpaceX’s Trading Patterns
SPCX has rebounded from those depths and posted gains of approximately 2% across the last five sessions. Nevertheless, shares remain significantly underwater compared to their post-IPO zenith.
DataTrek analyst Jessica Rabe conducted an analysis examining SPCX’s trading behavior relative to comparable equities. Her findings revealed unexpected patterns. Despite SpaceX’s trillion-dollar valuation and involvement in AI infrastructure and data operations, the stock exhibits virtually no correlation with Magnificent Seven technology behemoths.
The correlation coefficient between SpaceX and the Mag Seven registers at merely 0.28. By contrast, Apple demonstrates a correlation of approximately 0.7 with the S&P 500 index. SPCX has even displayed negative correlations with companies like Amazon and Meta.
Rather than tracking tech giants, SpaceX functions more as a barometer for overall market risk appetite. During periods of investor confidence, the stock attracts buyers. When uncertainty emerges, shareholders exit positions.
The stock demonstrates stronger correlations with aerospace-focused companies including Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile ($ASTS).
“SpaceX doesn’t yet trade like a clean proxy for any single investment theme,” Rabe wrote. “Six weeks in and one earnings report into public life, the market still hasn’t decided what SpaceX is.”
Analyst Perspectives
Notwithstanding recent price pressure, Wall Street analysts maintain positive outlooks on the equity. Clear Street’s Brian Dobson reaffirmed his Buy recommendation with a $217 price objective, highlighting domestic manufacturing capabilities and secure supply chain networks as strategic differentiators.
UBS analyst John Hodulik similarly maintained his Buy rating alongside a $210 target price. His thesis emphasizes sustained growth opportunities within Starlink and the company’s expanding technology portfolio, including potential catalysts from Starlink Mobile services and the V3 satellite network buildout.
According to TipRanks aggregated data, SPCX maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 24 Buy recommendations, six Hold ratings, and two Sell ratings. The consensus price target of $232.35 suggests potential upside exceeding 66% from present trading levels.
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