Key Takeaways
- Shares of SpaceX advanced 0.8% to $141.14 during Monday’s premarket session with a major share unlock event approaching on August 20
- Approximately 319 million insider shares will become tradable on Aug. 20, part of a phased unlock totaling roughly 4.9 billion shares by December
- After dropping below $105 in July, the stock recovered following impressive second-quarter results released on August 4
- UBS maintained its Buy recommendation with a $210 price target, highlighting Starlink subscriber expansion and femtocell technology potential
- The company reported second-quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, representing a 92% year-over-year increase, with AI-related revenue jumping 247% to $1.6 billion
Shares of SpaceX (SPCX) registered a 0.8% gain to reach $141.14 during Monday’s premarket session, as market participants brace for a significant insider share unlock scheduled for later this week on August 20.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX
Approximately 319 million shares currently held by early-stage investors and company insiders will become eligible for trading this Wednesday. This release represents one segment of a structured unlock timeline that SpaceX implemented after completing its initial public offering in early June.
The aerospace company raised approximately $75 billion through the IPO by issuing roughly 556 million new shares to public investors, representing a modest portion of the total 13.2 billion outstanding shares.
Market supply and demand forces have significantly influenced the stock’s early trading patterns. Investor apprehension about potential selling pressure from early stakeholders drove shares below $105 during July, substantially beneath the $135 IPO listing price.
The stock experienced a dramatic reversal following SpaceX’s second-quarter earnings announcement on August 4. Shares surged 23% during that trading week alone, followed by an additional 5% gain the subsequent week, ending a four-week decline.
Second-quarter revenue reached $7.8 billion, marking a 92% year-over-year increase. The company’s AI business segment proved particularly impressive, with revenue soaring 247% to $1.6 billion, fueled by expanded Cloud Services Agreements.
UBS Maintains Buy Rating at $210 Price Target
UBS analyst John Hodulik reaffirmed his Buy rating and $210 price objective on Monday. He emphasized SpaceX‘s dual positioning as both a leading cloud infrastructure provider and a developer of cutting-edge AI models as fundamental reasons for his optimistic outlook.
The investment firm anticipates a growth acceleration once SpaceX achieves sufficient scale with its V3 fixed broadband satellite constellation, projected for sometime in 2026. UBS currently forecasts U.S. Starlink subscriber numbers will expand from the current 3 million to 6 million by the conclusion of 2027, ultimately reaching 20 million by the end of 2031.
During its recent earnings call, SpaceX outlined a femtocell initiative that involves integrating compact radio units into next-generation Starlink terminals. This approach aims to provide coverage in locations where the V2 mobile LEO satellite network faces limitations, including densely populated urban centers and interior office environments.
UBS identified two critical requirements for this strategy’s success: obtaining low-band spectrum licenses and achieving sufficient deployment density. Possible spectrum acquisition opportunities include 800 MHz frequencies sold by T-Mobile to Grain, 700 MHz E Block spectrum owned by Echostar, and 900 MHz bands controlled by NextNav and Anterix.
Additional Share Unlocks Scheduled Through December
Not all Wall Street analysts share the bullish sentiment. Phillip Securities maintained a Sell rating with a $75 price target, expressing skepticism about the sustainability of revenue growth despite the impressive quarterly figures.
Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating with a $300 price objective, while Mizuho retained an Outperform rating, noting advancement on the Grok 4.6 artificial intelligence model.
SpaceX also recently finalized its $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, which now operates as a fully owned subsidiary.
More than 700 million shares will unlock in September, with an additional 650 million-plus becoming tradable in October. By the end of December, approximately 4.9 billion shares will be available for trading, representing roughly 70% of shares not controlled by Elon Musk.
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